Biden Becomes LBJ

A Fate that Could Not Be Avoided

An exhausted Democratic President finally decides not to seek re-election. Despite passing historic domestic legislation, war abroad has hit his popularity. He passes the nomination to his Vice President, who goes on to lose. 

This is the story of Lyndon Baines Johnson, but it also has parallels with Joe Biden. Despite his best efforts, Biden was destined to repeat the fate of his predecessor. 

The two men share a number of similarities, both ultimately achieving great things, but also failing to fully fulfill their dreams. But just as history has come to appreciate LBJ, perhaps the same will happen for Biden. 

Experienced Vice Presidents 

Both LBJ and Biden became Vice Presidents to younger, charismatic, and historic Presidents. Both came from a long career in the Senate and were experts in the inside game of DC. 

They had risen from humble origins to be elected to Congress in their youth, and reached senior Senate ranks. Both tended to be cautious and careful to not be too ideologically rigid on the issues of the day. 

Both also aimed to reach the highest office in the land. Their initial own attempts were unsuccessful, but ultimately were added to tickets to help balance them. 

As Vice President, they served their Presidents loyally, even if they may felt their skills were not always fully utilized. While they came into the Presidency during different circumstances, both had ambitious plans that started off promising. 

Domestic Achievements

Both LBJ and Biden were viewed with skepticism from the progressive establishment due to their mixed record in the Senate. But once in office, both were willing to use their power to push forward sweeping agendas. 

LBJ no doubt had the grander ambitions and achievements aiming to create both a Great Society and declare a War on Poverty. He used all his skills to finally pass the Civil Rights and Voting Rights Act to advance racial justice. To improve economic opportunities, he created Medicare, student loans, school meals, and various other programs to reduce poverty. There were numerous other pieces of legislation to reform immigration and gun control, among many more that still leave their impact today. 

While Biden’s achievements were relatively more modest, they were still impressive considering the increased polarization of our time. Biden passed a major stimulus to recover from COVID, the infrastructure bill, CHIPS act , and the Inflation Reduction Act to invest in America. He also passed the PACT act, Juneteenth Federal holiday, Emmet Till anti-lynching bill, electoral count reform act, the first national gun safety bill in 30 years, and numerous other pieces of domestic legislation.   

Both LBJ and Biden also sought to nominate a diverse slate of people to the Executive and Judicial branches. LBJ appointed the first Black Justice with Thurgood Marshall, while Biden appointed Ketanji Brown Jackson as the first Black woman to be a Justice. Of course, Biden also selected for his Vice President the first woman to serve in that role.

Foreign Policy Woes

As much as they achieved domestically, it was largely foreign policy that helped to drag down their popularity. While some of it was outside their control, how they handled these challenges also didn’t always make things better.

LBJ would come to be defined by Vietnam, both for continuing to commit the United States to it and failing to deliver a way out. The increased toll both in lives and treasure sunk his popularity with progressives for whom he had done so much by passing legislation. 

The images of students protesting in the streets and showing “Hey LBJ, how many kids did you kill today” came to define his presidency. No matter how much Johnson wanted to get out of Vietnam, he just couldn’t bring himself to do it. 

Biden did not face a single major American war like Vietnam, but a number of hotspots around the world that collectively took its toll. Ironically trying to avoid an endless quagmire like Vietnam, Biden withdrew troops from Afghanistan. However, the rushed ending and difficult scenes hurt Biden’s image as a competent President, from which it never fully recovered. Fair or not, Biden took blame for 20 years of failure in Afghanistan even though he was only in charge at the very end. 

Then came the Russian invasion of Ukraine which startled a years long war. Biden’s support allowed him to rally NATO to Ukraine’s defense and prevented Kiev from falling. But it also led to higher costs and costly aid packages to Ukraine, which the American people started to grow tired of paying for. 

And then there was Gaza, a war unleashed after the unspeakable tragedy of the October 7 Hamas attacks. Biden felt no choice but to back Israel as it vowed to eliminate Hamas. But as the death toll mounted in Gaza and there was no end in sight support for Biden faded among progressives. Students began organizing and protests took hold across campuses.

Biden attempted to put pressure on the Israeli government to scale back and reach a ceasefire deal. But he was never willing to fully break with Israel and for some it was a their own deal breaker as opposition to Biden’s re-election campaign began. 

Campaigns Abandoned

LBJ had a lifelong ambition to become President and achieved one of the biggest landslides in the 1964 election. He no doubt wanted to stay in office and achieve all the ambitions he had.

But his unpopularity led to challenges during the Democratic primary, beginning with Eugene McCarthy who challenged LBJ in New Hampshire. LBJ was not officially on the ballot, and was the write-in option, but McCarthy’s strong 42% showing suggested Johnson was vulnerable. This led Robert F. Kennedy to jump into the race as well, culminating a long rivalry between the men.

Afterwards, during a televised Presidential address, LBJ made the stunning announcement he would not run for re-election, stunning everyone. A man who had worked so hard to become President finally realized he had no choice, but to give it up.

Biden faced relatively token formal opposition in the Democratic primary, as Dean Phillips campaign never went anywhere, after Biden did better than LBJ during another New Hampshire write-in campaign. But there was a notable uncommitted campaign that lowered Biden’s numbers in some primaries. 

Ultimately it was a disastrous debate performance that led to the end of Biden’s re-election. What followed was weeks of infighting among Democrats as panic set in about impending loss. 

Biden did the 21st century version of LBJ’s announcement by posting it on social media while he was recovering from COVID. It sent both shockwaves and relief as Democrats finally felt like they had a shot in the election again. 

Vice Presidents Given Difficult Tasks

LBJ gave the mantle to his Vice President’s Hubert Humphrey, but he still faced primary rivals. Tragically, RFK was assassinated, leaving no strong alternative to Humphrey, who would eventually secure the nomination. What followed was a disastrous convention in Chicago that devolved into street riots and violence, leaving Humphrey badly damaged in the General. 

Vice President Harris entered the race in a better position with the party quickly uniting behind her. The convention was also in Chicago, but this time went much smoother and she seemed like in a stronger position.

Ultimately in both cases, the general election comes down to a General election with a ruthless Republican rival. Nixon employed the Southern Strategy to cynically attack Democrats on their civil rights achievements. Trump exploited fears over immigration and refused to allow passage of a border bill. Each election was relatively close, but still gave a clear outcome. 

Tragic Heroes 

Ultimately both LBJ and Biden presidencies ended in tragedy for their parties, but who nonetheless achieved great things while in office. Men of boundless ambition who wanted to use their power to improve things.

Neither was perfect and made mistakes in handling difficult situations abroad. Perhaps their biggest failure was not being able to hand off power to their chosen successor.

Yet history has ultimately come to understand the greatness of LBJ. A man who came to pass historic legislation still on the books today. Given the lack of progress on many issues since then, perhaps we can only now understand what he was able to achieve.

And perhaps in the fullness of time, we will appreciate all that Biden achieved. There was a brief period where he did make Washington work again. Only for it to end when Trump reemerged as leader of the GOP. Even if both men were never perfect, they also did more than what was appreciated at the time.