Hi everyone, I’m Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout 2025 Virginia Elections. This is a special bonus episode where we will go over some things that have happened in the Senate regarding the shutdown and a possible end to the shutdown and see how the Virginia Elections may or may not have played a role in all
00:17.87
Sam Shirazi
So to begin, just to give you kind of a rundown of what’s been going on, obviously the government shutdown has been going on for a while. The elections on Tuesday, Democrats did well. So a lot of Democrats felt like their approach to the shutdown had been vindicated.
00:31.39
Sam Shirazi
But then Sunday evening... News came out of the Senate that there was a compromise among some of the senators to come up with a deal to perhaps end the government shutdown. Now, there’s still a lot of procedural stuff that happens in Congress before the Senate can finally pass it and the House passes it.
00:48.23
Sam Shirazi
But long story short, it looks like the shutdown should be over sometime this week, depending on exactly when Congress votes on the bill. And I think there’s a lot of Virginia connections to what’s been going on, because one Obviously, the Virginia elections went well for the Democrats. I think some Democrats viewed that as, well, we were right to shut down the government. We were correct to stand up.
01:11.77
Sam Shirazi
And we did the right thing. And we were rewarded at the polls by the voters. And so we got to stick to it and not give in on the government shutdown. But then Sunday evening, one of the key senators who came out in favor of this bill to reopen the government,
01:27.24
Sam Shirazi
was Senator Tim Kaine from Virginia. And honestly, as soon as I saw that Tim Kaine had come out in favor of this, the bill was going to pass the Senate. And I think a lot of people were questioning, well, why did Kaine do this? Why have some of the Democrats decided to vote with the Republicans?
01:44.62
Sam Shirazi
I think most Democrats in the Senate and in the House are probably going to vote against this. So it’s really just kind of this so group of senators on the Democratic side that voted for it. So there’s a lot of kind of confusion about exactly what happened. and And I wanted to share some of my thoughts and my initial reaction. So first, i think a lot of people were confused about what ended up happening and why the Democrats ended up, or at least some of the Democrats ended up voting for this proposal.
02:12.41
Sam Shirazi
I think one thing this has made clear is the Democrats really need to work on communicating to their base about decisions they’re making, deals that are happening. I think a lot of people were surprised by this. They were not expecting this.
02:23.28
Sam Shirazi
and think that was part of the reason for the... you know, shock that the Democrats ended up doing this. Now, they had kind of been signaling for a few days that they were going to probably try to compromise. But I think kind of the speedway which had happened was surprising.
02:36.93
Sam Shirazi
And I think, frankly, the other thing, too, is the scale of the Democratic victories for the first time really since President Trump won in November 2024. think Democrats felt good.
02:47.57
Sam Shirazi
They felt good about what happened in Virginia. They felt good about what happened in New Jersey, California, New York. So Democrats felt like finally, We are making some progress. We are starting to get things in order.
02:58.77
Sam Shirazi
And that only lasted a few days because by Sunday night, a lot of Democrats were upset. And there’s this phrase that is kind of a meme about Dems in disarray. So for a few days, Dems were united and felt good.
03:10.12
Sam Shirazi
But now, again, they are back to fighting each other, pointing the finger, some people blaming Senator Schumer, some people blaming Senator Kaine, just a lot of you know upset people. And and I think in in Virginia specifically, I saw a lot of Democratic activists really upset at Senator Kaine and other senators who voted for this compromise because they felt like they didn’t really get anything out of it. Why are they doing this?
03:32.53
Sam Shirazi
They gave up on the Obamacare subsidies issue. And I kind of wanted to go through and explain it from different perspectives, maybe you know why some of these Democratic senators decided to do what they did, and then why the base is so upset.
03:45.41
Sam Shirazi
Now, first from the Democratic senators who voted for this proposal’s perspective. I think from their perspective, the government shutdown, there was no end in sight. I mean, i think some people have floated, well, the Republicans can just get rid of the filibuster. It didn’t seem like the Republicans were willing to do that.
04:01.84
Sam Shirazi
And I think the government shutdown had gotten to the point where The federal employees had missed two paychecks. They obviously holidays are coming up. There’s going to be a lot of expenses. People want to buy gifts to their families, et cetera. And federal employees were definitely getting to the point where they might not be running. They might be running out of their savings.
04:20.98
Sam Shirazi
So think that was one issue. Obviously, FAA, air traffic, flights, there were a lot of issues. Thanksgiving’s coming up. There was a pressure building that this needs to get resolved before Thanksgiving. So I think from that perspective, there was a sense of we need something to be done.
04:35.80
Sam Shirazi
And realistically, the Republicans are never going to compromise or give us anything on the Obamacare subsidies. So we have to see where we can get compromise or get something from the Republicans elsewhere. So there are a couple of things that the Democrats pointed to in this compromise, so to speak.
04:51.34
Sam Shirazi
One was SNAP benefits. so this committed to pay spen SNAP benefits or for the rest of the fiscal year. So I think that’s going to not necessarily be as big of an issue. Obviously, it doesn’t address the health care issue, but SNAP is important in order to get people food.
05:06.60
Sam Shirazi
So I think that was part of the formula of what the Democrats chose to do. I think the other thing, and this was specifically with Senator King, because I know that he was essentially the big the key swing vote. And that if he had voted for it, then it’s going to pass. And I think he was pushing back on the rifts, the reductions in force that happened since the shutdown.
05:24.42
Sam Shirazi
So what he was able to do is in this bill, there cannot be any more reductions in force for as long as this bill lasts, which is until January. The reductions in force that happened since October 1st are going to be reversed.
05:36.82
Sam Shirazi
And also the federal employees who have not been receiving a paycheck, they will get back pay. I mean, that was already kind of the law, but this just kind of emphasizes that again. And, you know, from I think Senator King’s perspective is this was a way to protect some of these federal employees.
05:52.83
Sam Shirazi
To be perfectly honest, this is the first time really the Congress has placed any sort of limits on the Trump administration since he came into office on January 20th. So Congress is essentially telling the president you can’t do more riffs for at least a limited amount of time.
06:06.97
Sam Shirazi
Might not seem like the biggest deal in the world, but I think symbolically it’s important that Congress is pushing back a little bit. And also practically, this is like a few thousand jobs that were threatened to be riffed that won’t, at least in the short term.
06:18.12
Sam Shirazi
Now, I’ve heard from some Democrats basically saying like, you know whatever, Trump’s going to ignore this. He’s never going to actually you know honor the agreement. And you know that’s possible. But I mean, at the end of the day, like if you are a member of Congress, the most you can do is write a bill essentially and hope that the president honors it. And if they don’t honor it, you know you can go to the courts, et cetera. you know I think that was the perspective from Senator Kaine and those who voted for this bill.
06:44.39
Sam Shirazi
And I think also practically, you know there’s a big question mark of what the elections meant this year. I think one way to view it, and I’ll get to the kind of more Democratic activist perspective, one way of viewing the elections is like the Democrats stood up to Trump and they’re getting rewarded for it. And what the American people want to see is people standing up to President Trump and the Democrats fighting and fighting for these things that are important like healthcare.
07:08.86
Sam Shirazi
I think that’s one perspective. I think the other perspective, and frankly, You know, Congresswoman Spanberger, former Congresswoman Spanberger, now Governor-elect Spanberger, she also said that the shutdown needed to end. And so I think there is this other perspective that really what the voters rewarded the Democrats for on Tuesday was really more pragmatism.
07:30.31
Sam Shirazi
focusing on issues people care about, like cost of living, et cetera, and not being so ideological, not focusing on the trans issue, which we talked about where Winston Merle-Sears just spent too much time on that issue.
07:41.75
Sam Shirazi
So really what the Democrats were rewarded for was for being, focused on things people caring care about and actually listening to the concerns people had. And so one argument, and this is maybe what Senator Kaine and those who support opening the government say is like, look,
07:56.52
Sam Shirazi
People expect the government to work. They don’t want to miss flights. Federal employees need to get their paychecks. This has gone on long enough. We tried our best, but at some point, the Republicans were never going to compromise, and we can’t keep the government shut down forever.
08:11.23
Sam Shirazi
Eventually, people are going to start blaming us, especially if it doesn’t look like we’re trying to compromise. And as much as we get that people are upset, they want action. Ultimately, we are the minority in Congress.
08:23.51
Sam Shirazi
We tried our best to get the Republicans to move. They’re not going to move. Now the American people are going to see if their Obamacare subsidies, Obamacare premiums go up a lot. Democrats can say, we warned you, we tried to fix this. The Republicans didn’t care. And I think that’s kind of the mentality of, you know, we essentially did the most we could. But at this point, right before Thanksgiving, federal employees, they need to receive paychecks eventually. The flights need to be somewhat normal. Like people have to get SNAP benefits. Like we can’t keep the government closed forever. And realistically, the Republicans, that was their plan. they They want to close it forever and there’s nothing we can do.
09:00.25
Sam Shirazi
And, you know, we have to be a little bit more responsible, I think. so So that’s kind of on one side. You know, I’ve heard from a lot of Democratic activists that like, look, at the end of the day, the Republicans are in charge. And so if they wanted to get Democratic bill votes for their bill, they have to actually offer something concrete. And these, you know, half measures about the riffs and the snaps is just not what the point of the shutdown was. The point of the shutdown was over Obamacare subsidies and the Democrats have just not been able to get anything out of that.
09:31.02
Sam Shirazi
And it’s not about, you know, who wins or some kind of ideological battle. It’s really about people’s premiums are going to go up. And so, People can now afford health care. That’s what we fought this shutdown over. That’s why on Tuesday, people gave us a mandate to fight.
09:46.05
Sam Shirazi
And now the Democrats look like they are not fighting and that they are giving up. And so that’s their perspective. I think that’s from the more Democratic activist base. and And it’s tough because I think and think specifically the ones in Virginia, heard a lot of them say things like, look, I spent all year working for the Democrats, trying to get a big win. We got a big win. We sent the country a message. We hopefully sent Congress a message.
10:19.47
Sam Shirazi
We are snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, which Democrats tend to do. I mean, that’s the mentality. I know it’s more complicated, but I’m kind of trying to articulate some of the mentality people have from the more Democratic activist side of things.
10:32.75
Sam Shirazi
And essentially, there’s this this feeling that the Democrats are unwilling to fight, unwilling to kind of go to the mat. And sure, they shut down the government for a while. But as soon as the going got tough, the Democrats just gave up and decided to move on.
10:45.84
Sam Shirazi
because they just didn’t feel like fighting anymore. And, you know, it’s it’s it’s tough. I think, you know, at the end of the day, I don’t, this is something that’s going to have to play out within the Democratic Party. And I think the question of how much they’re going to stand up to Trump, on what terms do they stand up on Trump?
11:01.62
Sam Shirazi
When is it too much? When does it not make sense? I mean, these are all strategy calls. And I think the reality is the Democratic Party that is somewhat leaderless. There’s no one person that runs the Democratic Party like there is in the Republican Party where the Republicans have Trump. They all look to Trump, whatever Trump says the Republicans are going to do The Democratic Party is not like that. It’s much more coalitional.
11:20.34
Sam Shirazi
Obviously, there’s no one singular person who’s like the president right now on the Democratic side. So I think they’re much more divided. And it’s kind of the reality when you’re an opposition party. And, you know, the thing I will say, you know, regardless of which side of the divide you fall under, maybe the more pragmatic side where we have to make a deal to reopen the government, or maybe the more activist side where you’re like, we really need to fight as hard as we can for these things that the American people care about. I think the one thing that is a little bit, you know, in my personal opinion, indisputable is just the communication side of things on the Democrats. I mean, this was just not rolled out well.
11:57.10
Sam Shirazi
I think people were surprised. I think people were confused about what happened. And I think if the Democrats are going to do stuff like this, they really do have to communicate it better and and it communicate what the end goals are, communicate why they are taking certain steps. And the problem right now is the Democrats are super divided. So you have this kind of a smaller group of people who were willing to vote for the bill. And then there’s this larger group who are still saying no, including some pretty moderate members of the Senate. So for example, Mark Warner, who’s also from Virginia, obviously, he he’s going to vote he no on the bill. And he’s more generally thought of as more moderate than Tim Kaine. it was kind of interesting that Tim Kaine voted for the bill, but Mark Warner didn’t vote for the bill.
12:38.93
Sam Shirazi
And so there’s all this kind of Confusion about what’s going on. And, you know, all that’s to say is like last few podcasts been saying, oh, everything’s great for the Democrats. Good Democrats had such a good night. And it just shows you in politics, things are complicated.
12:53.81
Sam Shirazi
You know, nothing good will ever last in politics. Unfortunately, you will have a good night. And then pretty quickly, you’re going to hit road bumps. I think the Republicans found this out. They thought, oh, yeah, we got this huge victory in 2024. Everything’s great.
13:06.11
Sam Shirazi
you know Tuesday night in Virginia and New Jersey was a wake-up call for the Republicans that they are not entitled to power. No one’s ever going to keep voting for them forever. That was an important message the Republicans got. And I think the Democrats are starting to learn, while you will have good nights, it’s easier being in opposition from an election standpoint. It’s harder when you’re in opposition to be united, to come up with a coherent strategy.
13:30.17
Sam Shirazi
And, you know, we’ll just have to wait and see how all this goes. I mean, my sense is This bill will pass. Government will reopen. But this issue is not going away. and And there will be another government shutdown fight in January. We’ll see if there’s a shutdown then.
13:44.26
Sam Shirazi
We’ll see what happens with the Obamacare subsidies. How much of a deal, big deal will this be for the midterms? is Is there a possibility that Democratic activists get really frustrated? They give up. They don’t do as much as they did this year in Virginia for the midterms because they just don’t believe in the Democratic brand.
13:59.73
Sam Shirazi
I mean, I think just to be super cynical, I mean, I think part of the calculation of the Democratic leaders who voted for this or the Democratic senators who voted for this, they’re going to say, like, look, at the end of the day, people are going to eventually forget about this, even if they’re upset about it now. And Trump is just going to make these people make our base so upset that they’re going show up no matter what. They’re going to support us no matter what.
14:21.41
Sam Shirazi
And I think that’s true to a certain extent. But I do think it’s important for Democratic elected officials to not take their base for granted and not take the activists for granted. I mean, i saw it in Virginia. They worked really hard this year in Virginia. They’re expecting results.
14:34.23
Sam Shirazi
They’re not expecting, you know, kind of wishy-washy things from the Democrats. They worked hard and they got a big win for Democrats in Virginia, virginia New Jersey, other states. And they are expecting something in terms of results for the, from their perspective, the fight against President Trump.
14:51.76
Sam Shirazi
And I guess the last thing I should say is, you know, the midterms are the big question mark. The midterms are really going to you know determine a lot. And I think there’s a year away. And just because the Democrats did well this year in Virginia doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed to do well in the midterms, particularly if some of these divisions keep keep causing issues for the Democrats.
15:08.59
Sam Shirazi
And yeah, I mean, I guess all that’s to say is there’s there’s a lot going on. I think the shutdown was a big deal in the Virginia elections. It seems like it’s going to be over soon and we’ll just have to see where things go from here. But, you know, obviously Democrats came off a bit of a high after what happened in the Senate.
15:26.70
Sam Shirazi
And it just goes to show you politics is complicated. Things are never as good or bad as you you think they are. I think President Obama once said that. So anyways, that’s just want to do a quick recap of everything that happened. I will continue to do a few of these episodes just to kind of cover what’s going on in the news in the Virginia elections and continue to unpack everything. But for now, this has been Federal Fall Out and I’ll join you next time.
