Time Is On Democrats’ Side

But They Can't Get No Satisfaction

The first month of the second Trump administration is in the books with 47 months left to go. For Democrats, it’s already felt like an eternity with the amount of things happening.

And of course the point is for things to move as quickly as possible while Trump is at the height of his popularity. But even at this high point, Trump has never enjoyed much more than 50% approval.

And Trump is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term. It may not feel like it now, but at some point Trump is going to be a lame duck as the political world shifts its focus to the 2028 election.

All this means that time is on Democrats side if they have the patience to wait out Trump. But Democrats can’t get no satisfaction as they watch everyday as the administration takes more and more dramatic actions.

Trump’s Approvals Coming Back Down

Every President this century has come into office with at least decent approval ratings. Some have seen big bumps in approval, but almost all have seen them come crashing down.

This was most dramatic with George W. Bush who enjoyed post-9/11 high approvals, only to leave office as one of the least popular presidents. Barack Obama faired the best during his tenure, but his approvals were never as high as when he took office and did not see another Democrat follow him into the Oval Office.

Trump’s first term began with relatively low approvals and they never really rose. Joe Biden entered with higher approvals, but those fell after the withdrawal from Afghanistan, never to recover.

All that is to say it is very difficult for a President to maintain approval ratings with a fickle electorate and media usually focused on negative stories. There are reasons to think that this trend has already caught up with Trump.

The average of his approval ratings have shown them going down since he was inaugurated. CNN, Gallup, and Washington Post came out with polls showing Trump with negative approvals, and as Biden showed, it can be nearly impossible to recover once approvals go negative. In addition, Trump’s own pollster recently showed Democrats ahead in the generic ballot in the main battleground districts.

The Democratic Path Back

For Democrats, the path back to power is pretty straightforward with a familiar playbook for an opposition party. The first major opportunity will be in 2025 by flipping the Virginia Governor’s mansion.

Next comes the midterms in 2026 where flipping the House is very realistic given the narrow Republican majority. The Senate will be more a challenge given the larger GOP majority and difficult map, but at a minimum, Democrats can pick up seats to set up a majority for the 2028 elections.

After the midterms, Democratic candidates for President will start announcing and the 2028 campaign kicks off into high gear. If Democrats control at least the House, not much will get done in Congress and Trump will start to enter his lame duck phase.

Indeed this is basically exactly what happened between 2005-2008 and 2017-2020 for Democrats, and 2021-2024 for Republicans. It shows both how being in opposition can rebuild a party brand and also the toll being in power can take on a ruling party.

Why Democrats Can’t Get No Satisfaction

For many Democrats, what is happening is a constitutional crisis for the country with the executive grabbing power with little pushback from the legislative or even judicial branches. There doesn’t seem to be an end in sight as the Trump administration continues to target Federal workers and agencies.

Many desire instant change that puts a stop to it leading to demands on Democratic lawmakers to do more to stand up in Congress. But it is going to be a long haul over months and years, and not days and weeks.

Still there are signs that it is having an effect as some Republican members of Congress are slowly voicing concerns and Trump’s legislative program is on much more shaky ground that his executive actions. And Trump’s approval is slowly eroding as political reality sets in and the honeymoon after the inauguration wears off.

This may be cold comfort for those losing jobs or otherwise directly impacted, but it is also the political reality that change will come slowly. The challenge for Democrats is to have both the patience and perseverance to put in the work over the coming years even as everything comes crashing down around them.

P.S. Kudos to those who got the Rolling Stones references.