Will Democrats Shut It Down?

How Far Are They Willing to Go?

“When you come to a fork in the road, take it” - Yogi Berra

The government shutdown deadline is March 14. It is the first time Democrats will have any leverage because Republicans will need some of their votes to keep the government open.

House Republicans released their version of a bill to keep the government open. It would give a Congressional stamp of approval to some of DOGE’s cuts.

This is obviously a non-starter for Democrats who will not support this version of the bill. But these initial bills are often staking out a negotiating position.

For the entire Biden administration, government shutdowns were avoided often because of last minute deals. The question is if Democrats choose to fight this time given their base is expecting them to do something.

There are the 3 possible scenarios that could play out this week.

Republican No Compromise Shutdown

If Republicans continue to insist of cuts being included in any bill to keep the government open, Democrats have the option of refusing to give their votes to support the effort. If Republicans hold firm, this would then lead to a government shutdown.

Democrats would bet that the public would blame Republicans given that they have total control of the government. Of course, Republicans will then point the finger back at Democrats for not voting for a bill to keep the government open.

Given some of the things in the initial Republican bill, it seems fairly likely that Democrats would not vote for it even if it leads to a shutdown. But Republicans are unlikely to fight for this too hard because they would prefer business as usual. They already control the Executive branch and this would let DOGE to continue its work.

The “Clean CR” Deal

If a shutdown is avoided, the “clean CR” option is mostly likely way it will happen. A clean Continuing Resolution or CR keeps funding level the same, without the changes Republicans proposed.

In the past this is what typically has avoided a shutdown, with Republicans often proposing this at the last minute. Almost inevitably, Democrats take the deal because they want to avoid a shutdown.

This outcome seems the most likely because in the past neither Republicans or Democrats have stomach for a shutdown. As much Democrats want to fight DOGE, they might feel a shutdown is not way to do it.

Democrats’ Nuclear Option

The question becomes what if Republicans offer a clean CR and Democrats refuse. After all, a clean CR basically funds DOGE’s ability to fire Federal workers and cut programs appropriated by Congress.

In other words, what is the point of Congress funding the Executive branch if DOGE can override Congress’s appropriations. The thinking would go that Democrats should hold firm and get some limits on DOGE’s powers either to fire Federal employees to block funding.

Of course, the risk in this path is that Democrats will take the blame for a government shutdown because they are staking out a firm position. It is also not clear how a shutdown will end because Republicans are unlikely to agree to Democratic demands. For these reasons, this scenario also seems somewhat unlikely, but probably higher than Republicans sticking firm to their position.

What’s Going to Happen?

That is the big question. Congressional Democrats will need to ask themselves what is more important.

Keeping the government open, but having DOGE continue with the chainsaw. Or put up a fight even if it leads to a shutdown in the hope it could lead to some limits.

The answer to that question will determine if the government is shutdown or not.