Hi Everyone, I’m Sam Shirazi and this is a special bonus episode to give you some of my primary predictions before the virginia primary and i wanted to do this because people asked me and i thought it'd be interesting to kind of give you my take on what's going to happen and Now, honestly, I'm not a huge fan of predictions for various reasons. One, and think it's inherently very difficult to make predictions, especially in a primary.
00:26.65
Sam Shirazi
And two, we're going to find out who's going to win on Tuesday night. So there isn't too much left before we find out who the actual nominees will be. But I do think it's interesting to talk about what might happen on Tuesday and give you a little bit of a rundown about what I think is going to happen.
00:43.17
Sam Shirazi
And, you know, full disclosure, these are just my educated guesses. I don't have some magical ability to to see what's going to happen in the future. There have been times in the past where I've got predictions right and there's been times in the past where I've got predictions wrong.
00:54.95
Sam Shirazi
So definitely take what I have to say with a grain of salt. I will try to kind of share what I'm seeing. My goal is not to discourage anyone from voting for a certain candidate if they want to vote for that candidate. I encourage everyone to vote for who they think is the best candidate, not necessarily who they think is going to win.
01:12.01
Sam Shirazi
i do just want to kind of give you my rundown, but obviously I could be wrong. I'm not trying to say that what I'm about to lay out is going to happen on Tuesday night. It's just what I'm seeing as perhaps the most likely scenarios.
01:26.95
Sam Shirazi
And, you know, before I get into the meat of it, I did want to kind of lay out the different regions in Virginia in a Democratic primary. I'm going to focus on the statewide op offices on the Democratic side for lieutenant governor and attorney general.
01:39.97
Sam Shirazi
Generally, there's three different major regions for a Democratic primary. You have northern Virginia, which is obviously the largest region in Virginia and has the largest population and the largest amount of Democrats.
01:50.65
Sam Shirazi
Then you have a Richmond area, which again has a good chunk of Democrats. And then you have Hampton Roads, which also has a decent amount of Democrats, although
02:01.04
Sam Shirazi
And I don't want to ignore Western Virginia, places like Charlottesville, Lynchburg, Roanoke, certainly a good chunk of Democratic votes there. But the reality is, unless it's very close, I don't think Western Virginia is going to be deciding the Democratic primary.
02:14.95
Sam Shirazi
And as you'll see, there's a lot of regional dynamics based on where the candidates are from. And I think a lot of what's going to be happening on Tuesday night are going to be the regional dynamics. So keep that as in mind as the results start coming in.
02:25.97
Sam Shirazi
So you might see one result coming in from Hampton Roads and one candidate doing really well. That doesn't necessarily mean the candidate's going to win the entire election because They might be the Hampton Roads candidate and you have to wait for Northern Virginia to come in before making a final call on the race. And I'm going to try to be pretty conservative when I do make my call on Tuesday night, unless it's really close and otherwise it will take even longer. But I suspect if it's not super, super close, we'll probably know Tuesday night.
02:53.99
Sam Shirazi
So all that's to say is there's like a lot going on. There's a lot of regional dynamics. I'll talk about some of those regional dynamics and then we can go on and talk about, you know, What might end up happening and who might end up on top. And again, i would say with these primaries, it's very hard for anyone to know for certain who's going to win. So take everything I have to say with a grain of salt. But if you're interested, know keep listening.
03:15.49
Sam Shirazi
All right. So first, we will start with the lieutenant governor's race where there are six Democrats running. It's very competitive. It's hard to know who has the edge right now. but I'm going to lay out what I think I'm seeing and what might happen.
03:27.46
Sam Shirazi
And I did this a couple weeks ago, so I don't want to just repeat what I said on the previous podcast. So i'm going to say a little bit different things that I said than the last time to give you a sense of what's going on, because this podcast is right at the end.
03:38.84
Sam Shirazi
So first we will start off with state Senator Aaron Rouse. He is from Virginia beach. So right off the bat, I think he is going to be doing pretty well in Hampton roads. Now, One thing that I'm looking for on Election Day and as the results are coming in is where is there going to be a turnout surge and is there going to be a turnout surge in Hampton Roads? And the reason I say that is for a couple of reasons. One, I would say so far, African-American areas, including Hampton Roads, have had relatively strong turnout in the early vote.
04:08.67
Sam Shirazi
And then the other thing that I think is interesting, really in the weeds dynamic is Virginia Beach. So obviously, Aaron Rouse is from Virginia Beach. And one thing that I noticed is this time Virginia Beach only had one early voting location and it didn't have any satellite voting locations.
04:23.72
Sam Shirazi
And I imagine the reason for that was they just didn't see the need to have satellite voting locations because ah ah it wasn't going to be like presidential election turnout. But that means that there's only been one place to vote in Virginia Beach in person this entire election early voting cycle.
04:40.52
Sam Shirazi
And if you think about Virginia Beach has a big population, has is big geographically. So if you live on the other end of Virginia Beach, you may not be driving over to vote at your early voting location. and And that means that you're more likely to come out on Election Day. So I do think there's a scenario where there's maybe a bit of a surge in Virginia Beach, particularly if Rouse is able to bring out his supporters.
04:59.95
Sam Shirazi
And that's one of the things I'm going to be looking at. And I think one of the reasons a little bit inherently unpredictable what's going to be happening Tuesday night as the results start coming in. All right, now let's move over to the next candidate who is state senator Ghazala Hashmi.
05:13.89
Sam Shirazi
She comes from the Richmond suburbs, and I imagine she's going to be doing pretty well in the Richmond suburbs. But you cannot win as a statewide candidate just with the Richmond suburbs, and I think she knows that. And that's why she's also been focusing a lot on Northern Virginia and the Northern Virginia suburbs, and particularly among women voters in Northern Virginia. I think there's a path for her.
05:33.19
Sam Shirazi
And again, I'll talk a little bit about the early voting nuance and in the weed details. So I would say inner Northern Virginia, Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax has really picked up recently in the early vote at the end.
05:45.06
Sam Shirazi
And there's been a decent turnout surge, which is pretty expected because those parts of Northern Virginia have a lot of politically engaged people. And usually you see pretty high turnout in Arlington, Alexandria, of Fairfax.
05:56.63
Sam Shirazi
I think one thing that's been interesting is Loudoun and Prince William, which I i call more outer Northern Virginia, has had relatively less turnout, I would say. Even compared to other parts of Virginia.
06:08.12
Sam Shirazi
And I don't know why that is I mean, it's possible people are just waiting for election day. And one thing to keep in mind with those areas, in terms of for Hashmi specifically, those areas, Loudoun in particular, has a decent South Asian community.
06:21.77
Sam Shirazi
And so if she's able to connect with South south Asian voters, that's another block of voters that she might be able to to have on her side as the election results start coming in. So again, there might be this turnout surge in outer Northern Virginia and Loudoun and Prince William. For whatever reason, people might not have wanted to go early vote because maybe the early voting locations were not super close to them because those are big counties.
06:44.50
Sam Shirazi
All right. So the next candidate is former Richmond mayor, LeVar Stoney.
06:48.92
Sam Shirazi
I think he's going to be expecting to do pretty well in Richmond city. The wild card again is Northern Virginia. And if you think about it, you know, who is competing for the Northern Virginia votes?
06:59.86
Sam Shirazi
All the candidates. But I do think Stoney, his angle is he has the backing of former Governor Terry McAuliffe. And if you see some of those more moderate suburban voters,
07:12.24
Sam Shirazi
who are looking for their candidate, who they're going to back. And if they end up choosing Stoney because of the McAuliffe endorsement or because of you know his time with the Democratic Party, then it's possible that Stoney starts to break through in Northern Virginia, particularly somewhere like Fairfax, where Terry McAuliffe is from and has you know been campaigning for Stoney. If he's able to break through in Fairfax, a lot of votes in Fairfax, and if he becomes kind of the Northern Virginia candidate, you can kind of see him putting this together, this coalition of know black voters, Richmond voters, ah voters from Northern Virginia, and then he might be able to to break through and and kind of get enough votes where he's going to end up on top.
07:50.10
Sam Shirazi
All right. Next candidate is Prince William County School Board Chair Barbara Lateef. As I mentioned, Prince William County has not necessarily turned out as much as other parts of Virginia yet. But again, if that changes on Election Day, there's a huge surge of turnout in Prince William County.
08:04.48
Sam Shirazi
That should help Lateef. He's also come out really strongly against the Fairfax Casino. And if a lot of voters in Fairfax, if their number one issue is the Fairfax Casino, I think, again, you'll be seeing him doing well. And that could get him a lot of votes because Obviously, Fairfax County is the biggest county in Virginia.
08:22.29
Sam Shirazi
mean, I think the challenge for him is the rest of his statewide numbers are a little bit unknown. And i don't know how much support he's going to get in in Richmond area or Hampton Roads. But in theory, if he can really run up the score in Northern Virginia, then there could be this path for Lateef in Northern Virginia. Then there could be this path where Lateef gets enough votes out of Northern Virginia.
08:44.98
Sam Shirazi
Okay. And finally, the last two candidates. Again, i think I've talked about this in the past podcast. I think they just have a harder time breaking through when you have these other candidates running. There's former DOJ prosecutor, Victor Salgado. I think he'll do relatively well in Northern Virginia, relatively well with Hispanic voters. But again, I don't know if that's enough to get the votes he needs.
09:04.63
Sam Shirazi
And then you have former labor official, Alex Bastani. I think he will be doing... you know, he'll relatively well with more progressive voters. Again, I don't know how many of them are actually going to come out and what percentage of the primary that's going to be. So I just, it's, it's hard to see the him putting together the coalition he needs.
09:21.29
Sam Shirazi
All right. So as you can see, a lot of different candidates, a lot of different paths to winning It's really and impossible to know which one is going to put together that coalition that's going to be able to get them to the number they need to win. i think it really depends who shows up on election day. And I can't model that. I can't predict that, particularly in a primary, there's really no way of knowing.
09:42.22
Sam Shirazi
I did want to lay out two scenarios. And I will say I've kind of copped out of giving a final prediction with one candidate winning this primary. I'll give you my overall thoughts on what's going to be happening.
09:53.43
Sam Shirazi
I think there's one scenario where there's this turnout surge in Hampton Roads and specifically Virginia Beach because of the satellite voting location issue. And then you see Rouse doing better with black voters and then he gets what he needs in Northern Virginia. And then you can see a scenario where Rouse ends up on top. He puts together that coalition.
10:12.19
Sam Shirazi
that he's able to get to kind of the magic number of 35%. So I would say if there's kind of a surge in turnout in Hampton Roads, then I would rate the race basically tilt-rouse. All right, but let's talk about a different scenario. And that's where we see a Northern Virginia surge.
10:27.10
Sam Shirazi
And for example, if Loudon and Prince William really start coming out in big numbers, and then have
10:32.72
Sam Shirazi
And then Hashmi is able to break through in Northern Virginia, for example, with women voters or with South Asian voters. And she's just really doing better with that demographic and is able to kind of become the Northern Virginia candidate. And then she has the Richmond suburbs.
10:47.22
Sam Shirazi
You would think, okay, that should... give her a path where she might be able to win. And, you know, there's kind of maybe this scenario where Rouse and Stoney are maybe splitting some of the black vote and she's connecting more with the suburban voters, then you could see a scenario where she ends up on top. And so i would say if there is this Northern Virginia surge and if it if it benefits Hashmi, then I would rate the race as maybe Tilt Hashmi.
11:14.88
Sam Shirazi
You know, I would say s Stoney's path is somewhat similar in that it he could be if he becomes a Northern Virginia candidate and then maybe if he does better with black voters, then he would have a path. I think the challenge he has is he doesn't have the natural you know connection where Hashmi has a base with women voters that, you know you know, a certain amount of the voters are just going to back Hashmi because.
11:36.52
Sam Shirazi
She's the only woman in the race, and that tends to help women candidates. think the issue Stoney has is he's competing with both Hashmi and Rouse. And so with Rouse, he's competing for the black voters. And then with Hashmi, he's competing for suburban voters.
11:51.51
Sam Shirazi
And there's a scenario where he just doesn't necessarily get the numbers he needs with either community. And then he ends up not winning the race. So I'm not saying that's going to happen. I think that's one of the scenarios that could happen. Now, in theory, if he again, if he does better with black voters, he does better with suburban voters, then you can see him putting together this coalition where he ends up on top.
12:10.57
Sam Shirazi
But I would say if I had to pick, gun to my head, the top two, Right now competing on Tuesday night are going to be between Rouse and Hashmi. Again, I could be wrong about that.
12:21.35
Sam Shirazi
I think Stoney definitely has a chance, but I'm just you know trying to lay out what i'm I'm seeing. And that's not to say that I don't think Stoney can win. It's just if I had to pick, that's kind of what I'm seeing right now.
12:34.10
Sam Shirazi
And for Lateef, it's kind of a ah ah similar story where, um know, in theory, I could see him getting the margins he needs in Northern Virginia to pull it off. I just think, you know, the question mark is what are his votes going to look like in Richmond and Hampton Roads? And I just don't know if he's able to get those numbers in the other parts of Virginia. But obviously, if he does get really high margins in Northern Virginia, then that could be enough for him.
12:55.94
Sam Shirazi
And then the other two candidates, you know, Salgado and Bastani, as I talked about, I think it's harder for them to put together a coalition to win. So all that's to say is like, I typically don't like to do these cop out type predictions. I typically like to pick someone.
13:10.47
Sam Shirazi
If I could, I probably would. i would just say this race is just really, really close. And we just don't know who's going to show up on election day. And for that reason, I actually think that's going to drive turnout. And there's going to be probably more turnout on election day because...
13:23.97
Sam Shirazi
all the candidates are working out to to get their voters. They're all voting, focusing on their different voting bases. And I think it's going to be really interesting. I'm really curious what overall turnout is going to be. I think that's going to be one of the stories after the primary. And obviously I'll talk about that once we have the final turnout number, but really interesting LG race. I think it's going to be really fascinating to see what the results are going to be.
14:03.31
Sam Shirazi
All right, now let's move on to attorney general, which in some ways is very is much simpler because we only have two candidates. However, I do think there's a similar Hampton Roads versus Northern Virginia dynamic.
14:14.42
Sam Shirazi
So in terms of the attorney general race, I've talked about this in the past. think the thing that changed recently in the last two weeks or so has been the big donations that Shannon Taylor has been getting from Dominion.
14:27.72
Sam Shirazi
Last I checked, the total number that Shannon Taylor has gotten from Dominion this entire primary cycle has been $800,000, I think that any that any primary that Dominion's gotten into.
14:40.08
Sam Shirazi
I will say Jay Jones has been getting support from Clean Virginia. So he's getting the Clean Virginia money and Shannon Taylor is getting the Dominion Energy money. That's leading to a lot of ads on both sides, a lot of focus on Northern Virginia, because I think that's where the race is going to be decided.
14:54.01
Sam Shirazi
And again, I think it's a similar dynamic. Is there going to be a surge in Hampton Roads and or is there going to be a surge in Northern Virginia? So if there's a surge in Hampton Roads, I think that definitely benefits Jay Jones.
15:05.26
Sam Shirazi
His base is in Norfolk. I think he's going to a good margin out of Norfolk. I think he's going to do well generally in Hampton Roads. And so if if we're seeing more voters turning out in Hampton Roads, you know, it's going to be pretty easy for Jay Jones to put together a coalition where he gets good margin from Hampton Roads, he gets a good margin with black voters, and then he keeps it pretty competitive in Northern Virginia, and then he's able to win.
15:28.14
Sam Shirazi
And I think the advantage that Jay Jones has compared to the lieutenant governor race is he's the only black candidate in the race. And so it it isn't going to be split like it is in the LG race between Rouse and Stoney. And so I think for all those reasons, I think he has the easier path to victory. And I do think if there is this more Hampton Roads surge scenario, then I would rate Jones as a favorite in that scenario.
15:52.41
Sam Shirazi
However, i think there's a similar dynamic if there is this surge of voters in Northern Virginia, particularly if there's a lot of women coming out in Northern Virginia and Shannon Taylor is able to break through with the women voters and she's able to use the money that she's been able to get from Dominion to reach those voters, you can see a scenario where she kind of breaks through, she becomes the Northern Virginia candidate and she's able to win.
16:14.100
Sam Shirazi
It's a little bit what happened, I would say, in 2021 where Mark Herring got really big margins in Northern Virginia. I think the challenge for Shannon Taylor is like, i don't know if she's going to be able to match the Mark Herring margins in Northern Virginia or even really get close to them because Mark Herring was from Northern Virginia.
16:31.96
Sam Shirazi
Shannon Taylor is from Richmond. I think she'll do well in the Richmond suburbs, but I just don't know if she'll be able to be getting the numbers she needs in Northern Virginia, given the fact that Jay Jones is going to get a good amount of vote votes out of Hampton Roads. So, you know,
16:46.68
Sam Shirazi
Because this is a one-on-one race, I feel like I have to pick a candidate and I can't do some sort of cop-out thing like I did in the LG race. So you know my gut is telling me just given the the easier path that Jay Jones has, he even if there is some sort of Northern Virginia surge, I still think he would be the favorite, although it'd be kind of slight at that point.
17:07.45
Sam Shirazi
I do think there is a scenario where Shannon Taylor can win, so I don't want to discount that possibility. But I did want to kind of pick. And if if there's kind of a, if I had to pick, I would say Jay Jones should win the attorney general race.
17:19.98
Sam Shirazi
And again, I felt like a one-on-one race, I have to pick someone. I think in the LG race, because there were six candidates, I felt a little bit more comfortable copping out and not giving one prediction because I think it's just very difficult to make a prediction when there's a six way race.
17:36.15
Sam Shirazi
All right, now let's move on to the House of Delegates. And i don't want to go through race by race because I think House of Delegates races just inherently are very hard to predict what's going to happen, especially if it's not a super high profile House of Delegates race. So I don't know I'll give you my whole list of predictions for the House of Delegates.
17:55.15
Sam Shirazi
I will say, you know, there are three incumbents facing primaries, two on the Democratic side, one on the Republican side. you know I could be wrong, but in my opinion, I don't see any of the incumbents this year who are facing primaries lose in the Virginia House of Delegates.
18:10.03
Sam Shirazi
Just because I think it's going to be interesting to talk about the battleground districts, I will go through each battleground district that faces a primary and talk about who I think will end up on top. So first, I will start with off with the Democrats, and I will start off with House District 57 in the Richmond suburbs.
18:25.94
Sam Shirazi
I've talked about this district before. This is the one that I think is most likely to flip. So there are two Democrats running. And in my opinion, given just the endorsements and the money she's been able to raise, I think May Navar is likely to be the Democratic nominee in this district, which will set up a competitive race with the Republican David Owen.
18:44.29
Sam Shirazi
And I think if the Democrats are having a good night, this is probably going to be the first seat that will flip for the Democrats in November. So we'll see how that race shapes up. I will move over to House District 73, also in the Richmond suburbs. And this is another one where I feel pretty comfortable that I think the Democratic nominee is going to be Leslie Mehta.
19:03.48
Sam Shirazi
And the reason I say that is she's gotten a lot of the endorsements. She was the and Democratic nominee in the first House District in 2020. So I just think there's a lot of dynamics where it makes sense that she would be able to win that primary.
19:15.92
Sam Shirazi
And while this one is a was only a plus one Harris district in 2024. I do think the Democrats, if they're having a good night in the suburbs in November, this is a type of seat that could flip.
19:27.26
Sam Shirazi
So we'll see an interesting race between, likely we'll see it between Leslie Mehta and the Republican incumbent Mark Early. All right, one more seat in the Richmond suburbs, and that's House District 75, where the current incumbent is Republican Kerry Conyer.
19:43.65
Sam Shirazi
I think this is kind of an interesting primary because there's three three people running. um I had to pick, I would say there's a slight advantage to Lindsey Daughtry just because she's raised more money.
19:54.77
Sam Shirazi
i will say I think there's a chance that Stephen Miller Pitts might also be able to win because the district has a decent black population. And I think if he's able to bring out those voters, he might be able to be the nominee.
20:05.55
Sam Shirazi
But if I had to pick, I'd say right now, maybe Lindsey Daughtry is a little bit favored, just given the fundraising she was able to do. So that's where I'm seeing that race. And I think, again, very competitive race in November because Harris won that seat by six points.
20:20.47
Sam Shirazi
All right. One more Democratic primary in a battleground district. And this is in House District 89 in the Suffolk-Chesapeake area. The incumbent Republican has retired.
20:31.41
Sam Shirazi
And this is roughly a plus three Harris seat from 2024. And I think there's a decent chance that Karen Carnegie will be the Democratic nominee in this district, just given the amount of money that she's been able to raise. So that'll be interesting to see if she's able to flip this seat now that it's open.
20:48.49
Sam Shirazi
All right, might as well talk about the 89th district on the Republican side because this is an open district. So there will also be a Republican primary on election night. And I would say that in this district,
21:03.62
Sam Shirazi
Mike Lamine would be the favorite to be the Republican nominee, just given the amount of money he's raised. And I think he has the endorsement of the current delegate, Baxter Ennis. So if I had to guess, I'm guessing we are going to be seeing a Lamine versus Carnegie matchup in November in this district.
21:20.10
Sam Shirazi
All right. Two more battleground districts with Republican primaries. So first, I will talk about the 21st House district. This is in western Prince William County. Current incumbent is Democrat Josh Thomas.
21:31.40
Sam Shirazi
There are three Republicans running to face him. Honestly, this is probably one of the hardest primaries to pick because, frankly, none of the campaigns has raised a lot of money. None of them have really decided. distinguished themselves.
21:42.63
Sam Shirazi
So I really don't know who's going to pick. If I had to pick a name out of a hat, basically, I am going to go with Gregory Lee Gorham. I, that's basically just I think he might be a little bit more well-known in the district, but honestly, it's really hard to know who's going to win that seat, uh, for the primary.
22:01.26
Sam Shirazi
Whoever wins will end up facing Josh Thomas. I think the Republicans have their work cut out for them because Josh Thomas has a big, war chest right now and none of the Republicans have raised much money, although obviously that can change after the primary. So another race to look out for in November.
22:35.92
Sam Shirazi
All right. And actually, I'll do two more primaries and then I'll wrap it up. And these are in open seats that are safe Republican seats. So I think it's important to talk about the primary and who I think might win because the winner is likely going to be the next delegate because these are very red seats.
22:52.37
Sam Shirazi
All right. And my pick for who's going to win is Adam Tolbert. And that's mainly because he has raised more money and he's gotten the endorsement of Governor Glenn Youngkin, which you would think in a Republican primary should help him. So I'm going to go without Adam Tolbert for winning this nomination. And if he does win the nomination, he's almost certainly going to be the next delegate from this district.
23:12.12
Sam Shirazi
All right, one more Republican district, this is House District 62 current incumbent Nick Friedus is retiring and my pick for winning the primary. is going to be Karen Hamilton, the main reason I picked her is because she gets the endorsement from Nick Friedus so you would think that that would help, although.
23:29.22
Sam Shirazi
I also think it's possible that Clay Jackson might pull off the upset, but I'm going to go with Karen Hamilton. And again, take all this with a super grain of salt because House of Delegates primaries are even more difficult to predict in some some cases. Some cases they're pretty easy to predict, but I think in some other instances, it's very hard to predict House of Delegates primaries. So I just did that more to kind of talk about the fact that there are House of Delegates primaries and Hopefully people find it interesting to when I also talk about the House Delegates primaries.
23:57.76
Sam Shirazi
However, as I mentioned, I think the vast majority attention on primary day will be on the statewide races for Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General. i hope ah ah you found this interesting to go over some certain scenarios and what might be happening on the Democratic primary.
24:13.26
Sam Shirazi
Again, i want to caveat everything, like take everything I say with a grain of salt. I could be wrong. I do think one thing I find annoying about pundits is that they typically only highlight the times they are right and they don't highlight the times they are wrong.
24:27.38
Sam Shirazi
And i will give you some full disclosure. i think I've had ah more success predicting Virginia stuff than federal stuff. So I'll give you my history or my recent history. So in 2023, I was able to predict that the Democrats were going to win the state Senate and that were at least going to tie in the House of Delegates, if not get a majority. And that's what ended up happening.
24:48.44
Sam Shirazi
Now, I will give a shout out to Chaz Nuttycomb. He actually predicted every single House race in that in the House of Delegates and in the state Senate. So he got all 140 seats right. I did not go that far and make predictions in individual races. I made kind of chamber predictions.
25:04.55
Sam Shirazi
So definitely Chaz Nadecombe gets a shout out for 2023 because he was correct in the predictions. 2024, I was correct in the Virginia primaries for the congressional seats. I got all the congressional primaries correct in 2024.
25:18.66
Sam Shirazi
However, in full disclosure, I did get the 2024 general election wrong. Nationally, I did get the congressional races and the Senate seat in Virginia correct in 2024. in terms of those races.
25:30.51
Sam Shirazi
However, I did get the 2024 national predictions wrong. And that kind of taught me that maybe I should say that national politics um and my predictions are maybe a little bit better in Virginia elections as opposed to national politics.
25:42.74
Sam Shirazi
However, i so I lay all that out there to say that I've had a mixed record. Sometimes I'm right, sometimes I'm wrong. I think it's important for pundits to be honest and transparent about when they get things right, they get things wrong.
25:53.74
Sam Shirazi
These races very much I could get wrong. I think especially with the statewide Democratic primaries, there's a level of volatility that's really inherently unpredictable. Who's going to show up on election day is very unpredictable.
26:06.58
Sam Shirazi
There is no way for me to make any sort of prediction with any sort of sense of confidence about who's going to be winning. But I did want to lay out different scenarios and different paths people have to victory.
26:17.48
Sam Shirazi
And, know, hopefully people found it interesting instead of bugging me about who who they think, who who I think is going to and win. They can listen to this podcast. And I appreciate everyone.
26:28.61
Sam Shirazi
joining and listening. um I'll obviously have more coverage of the primary once the results come in. And then once we get through the primary, I mean, that's really general election. So we've been focused on the primary a lot.
26:39.53
Sam Shirazi
Then we will get to the general election and it's going to be a sprint to the general election, a little over four months until we get till November. And there's going to be a lot going on. and I will cover it all. And I think it's going to be super interesting. So appreciate everyone listening to this podcast. Hopefully if you enjoy it, feel free to write a review it it helps people learn about the podcast. And obviously if you think people are interested in what's going on this Tuesday in Virginia, feel free to share this podcast with anyone who you think is interested, but otherwise I will be seeing you Tuesday night as I post the results as they come in. And then I will probably do a another podcast for you.
27:18.53
Sam Shirazi
for Wednesday morning just to kind of give everyone an update on how everything turned out. So should be an exciting night and make sure you you vote if you haven't already and you are able to vote in Virginia. And I will join you next time for a federal fallout.
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