Hi everyone, I'm Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections. This episode we will go over the Virginia primary that happened on Tuesday and I also wanted to look ahead to November and some lessons that could be learned from the Virginia primary.
00:14.77
Sam Shirazi
Now, I did a podcast appearance on the Virginia Press Room with my friend Michael Lee Pope, who has that podcast. I recommend listening to that podcast, both for the episode that I was on, but also generally because I think he does a really good job covering Virginia politics. Maybe some of the things that I don't necessarily do, which is more the statehouse coverage. I do more elections. But if you want to check out Virginia Press Room, really good, comprehensive coverage of what's going on in Virginia.
00:40.86
Sam Shirazi
And in my Virginia Press Room appearance, I talked a little bit kind of the lieutenant governor's race, attorney general race. I went through some of the House of Delegates races. Obviously, I did the podcast right after the primary where I gave you my initial thoughts and I was a little bit tired. I had little bit more energy now to talk about the primary.
01:00.42
Sam Shirazi
And so instead of just kind of going through who won, who lost, I thought what I would do is I'd look kind of big picture what happened and what it might mean for November. and And what I mean by that is I think there's some interesting general information about what's going on in Virginia and what happen in November.
01:17.15
Sam Shirazi
So to begin with, let's start with the lieutenant governor's race. And, you know, I talked about it. I think the big surprise in lieutenant governor's race was that Ghazala Hashmi was able to win the Richmond area by a lot.
01:29.74
Sam Shirazi
And LeVar Stoney relatively didn't do as well in Richmond. And the other thing I thought was interesting, both in the AG race and in lieutenant governor's race, is Northern Virginia. I feel like all the candidates spent a lot of time in Northern Virginia. They were all competing. And frankly, Northern Virginia was pretty much awash in both the Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General race, because I think all the campaigns spent all this time and money there. It was pretty much tied. And so while obviously there's a lot of votes in Northern Virginia, the candidates needed to do well there.
01:56.22
Sam Shirazi
they They all did pretty much what they needed to do in Northern Virginia. So the races were actually decided in other parts of Virginia. And I think the Lieutenant Governor's race really was decided in the Richmond area because Ghazala Hashmi and LeBar Stoney were really competing for the votes.
02:09.94
Sam Shirazi
And Hashmi was able to come out on top and she was able to win Richmond City. And, you know, I kind of want to talk about the Richmond area and looking forward to November. And the reason I say that is I think during the first Trump administration, the story of Virginia was really...
02:26.78
Sam Shirazi
the solid blue nature of Northern Virginia. So Northern Virginia had always been pretty blue, but during the Trump years, it just kept getting bluer and bluer. When Trump first came into office, there was actually a decent amount of House of Delegates seats in places like Fairfax that were controlled by the Republicans, which is kind of crazy to think about right now. But the Republicans lost a bunch of seats in Northern Virginia during the first Trump era.
02:49.51
Sam Shirazi
Northern Virginia became really, really deep blue. and I think, you know, at some point Northern Virginia because has kind of hit its ceiling for Democrats.
03:00.41
Sam Shirazi
they're pretty much at the point where they've gotten as many people to become Democrats in Northern Virginia as they can. And I don't know if it's going to keep getting bluer and bluer. And, you know, obviously that could be a problem for Virginia Democrats if they don't find new votes and potentially they might be losing more rural voters.
03:17.69
Sam Shirazi
And that's where Richmond comes in. And I liked what Chaz Nadiqom said about the Richmond area for the lieutenant governor's race. It was essentially like the king and or queen maker of the primary because...
03:29.98
Sam Shirazi
Richmond area is becoming more Democratic. And I think more of the focus in the future for the Democratic Party in Virginia will be the Richmond area because they have a lot of room to grow in the Richmond area. Partly that's because people are moving down from Northern Virginia down I-95 to Richmond because it's more affordable relatively to Northern Virginia.
03:48.81
Sam Shirazi
And I also think Richmond area has what are called like ancestral Republican area. So it used to be that places like Henrico and Chesterfield were actually pretty Republican. And now those have both become relatively more democratic.
04:02.65
Sam Shirazi
But there are still kind of outer Richmond suburbs, places like Hanover and Goochland that are still pretty Republican, but they're starting to become less and less Republican. And so I think there's this combination of population growth in the general area and then people becoming more Democratic.
04:20.48
Sam Shirazi
And I think there is a story potentially in November of the Richmond area becoming kind of more of a center of power for the Democrats in Virginia. And i could see a scenario where in Trump one, it was really about Northern Virginia for the Virginia Democrats.
04:37.66
Sam Shirazi
And in Trump two, this focus shifts to the Richmond area, and that's where they're going to see a lot of their gains. And so we saw a little preview of that, I think, with the lieutenant governor primary, where Richmond really became one of the ground zeros of that campaign. And it was a little bit won and lost in the Richmond area for Ghazal Hashmi and LeVar Stoney, respectively.
05:00.84
Sam Shirazi
Now, I did also want to talk about some of the primaries in the House of Delegates that happened. And i'm not the way I'm going to do this is I'm not going to go primary by primary, but I'm going to talk about three House seats in the Richmond area,
05:13.51
Sam Shirazi
that the Republicans currently control that had primaries on Tuesday. So those seats are House District 57, House District 73, and House District 75. And all three of those seats, basically the Democrats that I expected to win those primaries ended up winning those primaries. So in House District 57, the Democratic nominee will be May Navarre.
05:36.68
Sam Shirazi
In House District 73, the Democratic nominee will be Leslie Mehta. And in House District 75, the Democratic nominee will be Lindsey Daughtry. And so all three of those districts are somewhat similar. I'd say House District 57 and House District 73 are more similar in that they are more traditionally Republican seats that each cycle has become more friendly to the Democrats.
05:58.79
Sam Shirazi
House District 57, I often mention, is the most likely seat to flip. House District 73 is going to be a ah tougher lift for Democrats, but certainly they have an opportunity there. And House District 75 is a little bit of more of a mix of suburban and working class areas.
06:13.58
Sam Shirazi
But I also think the Democrats have a good shot at that seat. And so those are three Richmond area seats that the Democrats could potentially flip. And so you're seeing this scenario where the Richmond area could potentially be really big for the Democrats this November. And if you think about it,
06:31.21
Sam Shirazi
At the top of the ticket, Abigail Spanberger comes from the Richmond suburbs. Ghazal Hashmi comes from the Richmond suburbs. So I think there's going to be a lot of interesting dynamics in play. And, you know, it's just something to keep in mind where basically now Northern Virginia might be kind of set in in the sense of it's pretty much, you know, pretty static in terms of the vote share that the Democrats and Republicans are gonna get.
06:55.66
Sam Shirazi
I will say in outer Northern Virginia, places like Loudon and Prince William, there there still might be a little bit of movement, but places like Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, for the most part, I mean, ah ah kind of set in in their voting patterns.
07:08.86
Sam Shirazi
And so I do think there's gonna these interesting shifts that might happen more in the Richmond area. And so that's something to keep an eye on. and And we definitely saw the influence and strength of the Richmond area in the Lieutenant Governor primary.
07:19.90
Sam Shirazi
All right. Now let's move on to the attorney general primary, because I think it was a little bit of a different dynamic. As I mentioned, Northern Virginia was almost a tie. I think Shannon Taylor did ah slightly better in Northern Virginia, but not by enough that she could win.
07:32.92
Sam Shirazi
And then in the Richmond area, it was, again, pretty close. I think Shannon Taylor ended up getting a decent margin from Henrico, but J. Jones was able to do better than he needed to in Richmond and Chesterfield. And so that kind of made Richmond also a wash in the attorney general's race.
07:50.56
Sam Shirazi
Really, the place that Jay Jones won the attorney general primary was in Hampton Roads. That was his base. He always needed to do wear well there. And he did well there. He got a lot of votes out Norfolk.
08:01.19
Sam Shirazi
And that general area with ah ah Virginia Beach, Portsmouth, Hampton. And so I want to focus on Hampton Roads because I think it often doesn't get as much attention certainly as Northern Virginia. But Hampton Roads is is actually a pretty big area. There's a lot of different jurisdictions.
08:19.99
Sam Shirazi
So you don't always hear about one city. But combined, there are a lot of people that live in Hampton Roads. And typically it's more of a political battle battleground. I would say it certainly leans towards the Democrats, but it does see big swings between elections.
08:35.04
Sam Shirazi
And the the voting patterns here are, I would say, more similar to other parts of the South, like the New South, like areas like North Carolina, Georgia. You have more college-educated white voters there that are starting to move towards the Democrats and away from the Republicans.
08:51.25
Sam Shirazi
And so I think Hampton Roads is another area where Spanberger potentially could be making gains, especially with white college educated voters who may have traditionally been Republicans, but maybe this cycle will end up voting for her.
09:04.28
Sam Shirazi
I think the big question mark for the Democrats in November in Hampton Roads are African American voters. I think it helps that Jay Jones is going to be on the ticket. He's from Hampton Roads. He's African American.
09:15.27
Sam Shirazi
That will help motivate some of those voters to come out. And you often see that sometimes the issue is not that these voters are voting for the Republicans. It's just that they don't turn out, especially in these off-year elections.
09:26.87
Sam Shirazi
And there are some House seats in the Hampton Roads area that certainly could flip. And one of them had a primary on Tuesday. That's House District 89. And both the Republicans and Democrats had a primary.
09:39.76
Sam Shirazi
And pretty much the candidates we expected to win those primaries won them. That was Michael Lamine. Actually, I think he goes by Mike. Mike Lamine. And then for the Democrats, it was Karen Robbins Carnegie.
09:52.96
Sam Shirazi
So those were... who I expected to win those primaries. And that district specifically has a decent African-American population. Obviously, the Democrats need to get out those voters in order to win that district.
10:04.20
Sam Shirazi
And so that is one of the dynamics I'm going to be looking for. And, you know, I think it was kind of interesting. I had kind of kept saying, yeah, Northern Virginia super important for both the LG and AG race. Like, we really need to figure out what's going on in Northern Virginia.
10:19.10
Sam Shirazi
Obviously, all the candidates also thought that. And I mean, it makes sense. That's where most of the votes are. But what you had this weird dynamic where both in LG and AG, Northern Virginia was pretty much split by all the candidates. And so the the race was decided in other places. And I think in the attorney general race, um was decided in Hampton Roads in favor for Jay Jones.
10:41.40
Sam Shirazi
So a lot of people had commented that this is the first time the Virginia Democrats didn't have a Northern Virginia candidate in a long time. And I think people have gone back and tried to figure it out.
10:52.97
Sam Shirazi
Technically, I think this is the first time since 1985 that the Virginia Democrats have not had a Northern Virginia person on the ticket. And i think in some ways that helps them because, you know, the reality is Northern Virginia has seen a lot of the federal fallout. It's already pretty democratic. It has a lot of college educated voters. It already has a lot of high propensity voters.
11:14.07
Sam Shirazi
Reality is Northern Virginia is probably going to come out this November. And so we talked about some of the dynamics with the Richmond area and also with Hampton Roads. We talked about that dynamic. So I think it's important that the ticket for the Democrats actually doesn't have a Northern Virginia candidate because it gives more regional diversity.
11:32.48
Sam Shirazi
And one of the issues i mean, this isn't why the Democrats lost in 2021, but in 2021, the entire ticket was from Northern Virginia. And you did see the the turnout in Hampton Roads not as high as other parts of Virginia.
11:44.38
Sam Shirazi
And so I think keeping in mind these regional dynamics for November will be important because they were certainly important in the primary. And if you looked at the different maps of the LG and AG race, it really was based on regional dynamics the way that the race was decided.
12:01.01
Sam Shirazi
All right. One other thing I wanted to talk about was total turnout. So I had mentioned that...
12:07.04
Sam Shirazi
So it looks like the final turnout is going to be for the Democrats somewhere in the ballpark of 485,000 votes. I think we're still waiting on some of the final vote total. So it's kind of unclear exactly what the final is going to be. But we're going to see roughly 485,000 to 490,000 votes in the Virginia Democratic primary, which I think is a very strong number.
12:29.58
Sam Shirazi
considering that the last time the Democrats only had a lieutenant governor and attorney general primary without a governor's primary was 2013. There were only 145,000 votes that time.
12:40.29
Sam Shirazi
Now, granted, early voting was much more difficult back in 2013, but still, i mean, you're seeing over three times the amount of votes that have been cast since then. And if you think about what happened in 2021, the total primary turnout was about 495,000. And that had a governor primary with five candidates running. And so you have just these two ah ah statewide offices that are not the governor's office in 2025, you have almost the same amount of turnout. So I think overall, that's a pretty good sign for the Democrats.
13:13.24
Sam Shirazi
Now, some people have said, well, that's not that much turnout. I mean, there's so many voters in Virginia. I mean, true, in the grand scheme of things, it's not the entire population of Virginia that came out for these primaries, but you have to keep in mind, I mean, these are usually pretty sleepy affairs. And I think the fact that they were both really competitive this year meant that there was going to be a lot of turnout.
13:31.69
Sam Shirazi
And two, the fact that ah people are engaged more, I would say, because of what's going on in DC. I mean, that always happens where the party out of the white house gets more engaged because they're upset at what the president's doing.
13:44.71
Sam Shirazi
It's part of the reason why the party in the, out of the white house always, almost always does well in the Virginia elections. And so i think overall, the Democrats have to be pretty happy when they're looking to, to November.
13:57.16
Sam Shirazi
And one thing to keep in mind is, you know We talked about the regional balance on the ticket. I also think that there's a little bit of a balance between the different communities in Virginia. So you have Abigail Spanberger at the top of the ticket.
14:08.92
Sam Shirazi
Ghazala Hashmi, I mentioned this before, is the first South Asian statewide candidate. That's a growing community in Virginia, has growing political influence. In the 2024 election, I think the Democrats were struggling somewhat with South Asian voters. So we'll see if Ghazala Hashmi being on the ticket might help.
14:25.98
Sam Shirazi
the Democrats struggled last year in Loudoun. And there was a famous moment when Loudoun released its vote total and the Democrats were doing not as great as they were wanting to do in Loudoun. And that was an early preview of how the night was going to go.
14:38.13
Sam Shirazi
And then you had someone Ghazal Hashmi She is both South Asian and she's Muslim. She's the first Muslim candidate to statewide office. So I think she can reach out to both the South Asian community and the Muslim community.
14:51.70
Sam Shirazi
Those are both communities that have swung away from the Democrats. The Democrats have had trouble with those voters recently. And I think there is an opportunity for a candidate like that to come in and maybe shore up the Democrats a little bit and win back some of those voters.
15:05.34
Sam Shirazi
And then obviously at the attorney general spot, you have Jay Jones. We talked about how he could help with the African-American community and get those voters out. And I think the Republicans really have to ask themselves, you know, looking at these results, you you know, what are they going to do to counter this ticket? Because at the end of the day, you know, they are having some problems between the the governor and lieutenant governor.
15:28.96
Sam Shirazi
And it is not going to be an easy task going against this ticket in November. I mean, obviously, they're going to put out their statement. They're going to say it's extreme. I mean, both sides try to paint each other as extreme and out of touch and and all that. And I get it. i mean, that's politics. That's what you do with your opponent.
15:43.65
Sam Shirazi
But they also have to be realistic that they are facing. especially the top ticket with Abigail Spanberger, someone who does have appeal to more middle of the road voters.
15:53.93
Sam Shirazi
And now that she's on a ticket with these two other people who have appeals to different communities in Virginia, I had i talked about how perhaps a area where Spanberger might struggle was with African-American voters. Now she has an African-American person on the ticket that can help her reach those voters, get those voters out.
16:12.71
Sam Shirazi
I think the Republicans have to start thinking about, OK, what is the plan now for November? Because general elections on the ah early voting starts in in late September. So it basically starts in three months. Early voting is pretty crazy to think about. But early voting starts in three months. The general election is about four and a half months away.
16:33.23
Sam Shirazi
And there's not a whole lot of time to get things in order for the Republicans. given the way ah the Democrats have you know been able to put together this ticket. They clearly have a lot of voters who are engaged, voters who came out. those voters i mean One thing is if you're going to if you turn out for a primary, you're almost certainly going to turn out for the general election. So you have a base of voters now that the Democrats are going to be able to build on for the general election.
17:00.48
Sam Shirazi
And I will say in all the battleground districts, Democrats pretty much got the candidates that they wanted. I would say the the candidates that were endorsed by the House leadership were the candidates that were selected.
17:12.80
Sam Shirazi
I don't think the Democrats have any candidates that are super problematic. On the Republican side in some of these battleground districts, you know the candidates, at least in one district, so we'll talk about House District 21, I like to talk about that district,
17:26.67
Sam Shirazi
There weren't too many people who showed up for that primary on the Republican side. that was in Western Prince William. And not that many people showed up for that primary. And so these House races, I think there's a risk that the Republicans are getting a little bit you know, in a place where their voters aren't necessarily super enthusiastic.
17:46.79
Sam Shirazi
I will say there was one thing that i noticed that was kind of interesting. And that was in an open house seat in Western Virginia. And that was house district 46. It was actually the only house district that I got wrong in my primary prediction. So I didn't go through the whole list on my primary prediction podcast.
18:04.79
Sam Shirazi
But I did have an article on Blue Virginia where I gave my predictions for every single House of Delegates primary. I got all nine of the Democratic primaries right, and I got seven out of eight of the Republican ones wrong. The only one I got wrong was House to District 46.
18:19.21
Sam Shirazi
And I picked Tolbert to win that primary because Governor Youngkin endorsed him. But his opponent, Cornett, was able to win that primary. and I was pretty shocked by that because certainly like two years ago, if Governor Youngkin had endorsed someone in a Republican primary, it was almost certain that person was going to win.
18:38.87
Sam Shirazi
And, you know, to be perfectly honest, I didn't follow all the ins and outs of that race. But the fact that the candidate endorsed by Governor Youngkin didn't win that primary, I think that's telling us a little bit about what's going on in the Virginia GOP.
18:51.68
Sam Shirazi
And the fact that Governor Yunkin is on his way out, and I don't know how much influence he has over the Virginia GOP anymore. And I will be honest, there's a little bit of a split, I would say, between the lieutenant governor candidate and the current lieutenant lieutenant governor who's at the top of the ticket with Winston Earl Sears and John Reed.
19:11.30
Sam Shirazi
And I think there's a little bit of a tug of war about who's really going to be driving the train this year in Virginia. And um I will say this, I live in Arlington. i saw a lot of Democratic signs in yards, which makes sense because that is what happens in Arlington because most people are Democrats in Arlington. It's a very blue part of Virginia.
19:32.63
Sam Shirazi
However, I did see a Republican sign in the yard. And the sign was for John Reed. It was not for Winston Earl Sears. And I thought that was very interesting because it's pretty rare if you don't have a primary to see the sign of the lieutenant governor candidate, but not the governor candidate, not the attorney general candidate.
19:49.26
Sam Shirazi
And I'm just curious to see if we're going to see that dynamic this November where are some people who are John Reed fans. There are some people who don't like John Reed. There are some people who like Winston Earl Sears. are some people who don't like Winston Earl Sears on the Republican side.
20:03.65
Sam Shirazi
And I think that's going to create a difficult dynamic for the Republicans as they're trying to navigate this challenging political environment, which is already challenging, given the federal environment with all the cuts and what's going on in D.C.
20:15.64
Sam Shirazi
And now they have these issues in Virginia. And, you know, i think there is a scenario where the Democrats generally have their act together. um think my sense was,
20:28.52
Sam Shirazi
Obviously, the candidates that lost and their supporters disappointed at the outcome. I mean, that's what happens in a primary. you know The people who lose aren't, you know it's difficult and you know you put a lot of your heart and soul in this one campaign and then you come up short. That's never a good feeling.
20:43.04
Sam Shirazi
But my sense is, at least publicly, like they are all backing the ticket. there There is a lot of support. I think people generally feel like it's a balanced ticket.
20:54.00
Sam Shirazi
It's what the Democrats need right now in Virginia. And you look at the Republican side and very clearly there is some tension between the governor and lieutenant governor candidate. And that just generally is not great for morale. If you're a Republican, it's also not super clear what's going to be happening um in November.
21:11.31
Sam Shirazi
Are they going to have joint campaign appearances? I mean, all that's up in the air. And I think the primary answered some interesting questions about who the candidates are going to be for the Democrats.
21:22.84
Sam Shirazi
Republicans, I think they have to really start taking November seriously because there isn't too much time left. And I'm not really sure what the plan is. Obviously, Governor Yunkin could try to come in and try to spend money and try to influence the election. But as we saw in this one primary where he endorsed someone, it didn't really work out for him.
21:42.27
Sam Shirazi
President Trump has a lot going on in D.C., both in Congress trying to pass this bill that is having some challenges. And then obviously internationally, he's dealing with a lot. And so I don't know if his top priority right now is the Virginia elections. And I don't frankly, I don't know if him coming in into the Virginia elections would actually help the Republicans. But in theory, it could energize them.
22:02.16
Sam Shirazi
And so you have a lot of Democrats in Virginia who are fired up, who are pretty happy about their ticket. They're ready to go to November. And Republicans, you know, they have to deal with that reality. And I think there is a scenario where Spanberger, particularly at the top of the ticket, is looks like she's going to win this thing. And, you know, some people might care about Lieutenant Governor and Attorney in General, but most people focus on the governor's race. And so if if you are either not coming out as a Republican because you're you're somewhat demoralized about the governor's race or you may end up even voting for Spanberger the top of the ticket, there may be more tickets splitting this year because Spanberger might get a bigger win.
22:44.97
Sam Shirazi
but still big enough that it dragged everyone across the line. I think those are all things to look for this year in Virginia. um I'm not saying the Democrats are guaranteed to win. I'm not saying the primary proves the Democrats are in a great place and they're going to win and everything's fine for them.
22:57.96
Sam Shirazi
But I do think we just have to be realistic about the nature of things. And, you know, one of the hard things is a electoral analysts, a political analyst is to try to be objective and try to see where things are.
23:09.41
Sam Shirazi
And, know, I'm trying to do my best to figure out where things are in Virginia. I think the next thing at some point, I'm going to look at all the House of Delegates races, try to figure out how many of the races are actually competitive. Democrats are talking a big game, talking about going after a lot of Republicans, like realistically, how many seats could they end up winning in November?
23:26.49
Sam Shirazi
And so all that is really interesting to look for. You know, I hope I hope you guys keep following along as we're doing this podcast. I
23:36.28
Sam Shirazi
ah Hopefully people got a lot of and good information about the primary from my previous podcast. I think most of my primary predictions held up pretty well. i did underestimate LeVar Stoney. do think The candidates that came up short in the primary, it'll be interesting to see what their next moves are.
23:53.32
Sam Shirazi
I mentioned Aaron Rouse and Shannon Taylor have been mentioned for potentially running for Congress next year. Obviously, it's up to them, and I don't know they'll eventually make their decision if they want to do that.
24:04.03
Sam Shirazi
I think it'll be interesting to see what the other candidates end up doing. But overall, really interesting primary in Virginia. I think ah ah it kept everyone glued to their results pages as the results were coming in. I'm sure people enjoyed watching that. And it was pretty nerve wracking for the candidates, I imagine, until we got the results. But anyways.
24:23.26
Sam Shirazi
All right, everyone. I hope yeah you've enjoyed listening. We're going to take a little breather from the primary. Obviously, we're going to get into general election soon. But for now, that has been federal fallout. And I hope you join me next time.
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