00:00.65
Sam Shirazi
Hi everyone, I'm Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections. This episode we are joined by Geoof Skelly. Fun fact, Goeff and I went to college together at the University of Virginia. So I've known Goeff for a long time and i followed his career as he has got into political analysis.
00:18.65
Sam Shirazi
First, he was at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. with Crystal Ball, and he did a great job there. And then he moved over to FiveThirtyEight. And obviously FiveThirtyEight is no longer around, unfortunately, but I'm sure Jeff will be doing amazing things in the future. And he's always a person I turn to and when I'm looking for political analysis. So I thought it'd be great to have him on to talk about Virginia and beyond. So Jeff, thanks for joining me.
00:46.62
Geoffrey Skelley
Hey, thanks so much for having me, Sam.
00:48.75
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, so I guess before we start into the specific elections, kind of big picture, could you talk about your career and like how you approach politically political punditry, for last got lack of a better word, and or just trying to rate elections? Because I think it's a very specific skill set. And obviously, i think the it's one of those things you develop over time and kind of how you got into that and and what you're doing today.
01:15.100
Geoffrey Skelley
Yeah, well, you know, it's interesting. i I got a master's in political science from JMU and was studying James Madison University, for those who don't know, which most people listening to this probably know what JMU is.
01:28.44
Geoffrey Skelley
And i I was actually studying the European Union, and I thought I was going to do something in like transatlantic affairs after I got out of that program. But I ended up getting a job. Obviously, I had a lot of knowledge about US politics. I've been interested in US politics for a long time.
01:41.15
Geoffrey Skelley
And I got a job at the Center for Politics. And I ended up going into this career of doing ah election and political analysis. And I'm really happy I fell into it because it is, I mean, it was something I had done as like an intern at things in college and just after college, but it was now, you know, make it my livelihoods been really, really great. And I, you know I think what you have to be when you're doing this job is just very good about considering all the information, considering past trends,
02:12.48
Geoffrey Skelley
being willing to think about why those past trends might not be as helpful in this particular election cycle or why they're extremely helpful or you know similar circumstances to maybe a past election.
02:25.42
Geoffrey Skelley
And I think one of my favorite things to do And I don't have an immediate example off the top of my head, but it's just sort of the inclination for very short-sighted political reporting to talk about how like, oh, this unusual situation or something that's never happened or or sort of unprecedented type talk.
02:43.70
Geoffrey Skelley
And usually something is not unprecedented in American politics. Sometimes you have to reach farther back for examples. you know For instance, I've been thinking about all the redistricting stuff going on in terms of redistricting battles and Texas probably redistricting and the threats from different states that they'll redistrict retaliation and what have you.
03:04.91
Geoffrey Skelley
And you know there's not really a good recent example of that kind of mid-decade tit-for-tat partisan redistricting. You know, it's one thing for a court case to order it. But if I think back, you know, in the late 19th century, i think Ohio redistricted like six or seven times in like eight election cycles or something in like the 1880s or 1890s. I forget.
03:26.36
Geoffrey Skelley
was something something along those lines. It's just a completely different world where parties were looking in a very, very evenly split country. We're looking for any advantage that they could they could grab the U.S. House race.
03:40.97
Geoffrey Skelley
And well, what do we have right now? a really divided country, ah ah very, very closely divided u s House of Representatives, and naturally the party in power is looking for any way it can to hold onto that power.
03:55.08
Geoffrey Skelley
And the party that's out of power that really wants to gain power back, the Democrats are are looking for ways to counter any Republican attempts to to change lines in places like Texas. so It's really very fascinating, but I think a good example of how you are you can find past examples that that are helpful for understanding the present, even if they were obviously under very different circumstances, at least in terms of time.
04:21.32
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, and that that makes sense. And I definitely, one of the things I like about political analysis, because I also love history, is to look back at history and to kind of look at those trends and see how they apply to today.
04:33.100
Sam Shirazi
And so with that in mind, I'll turn to Virginia, because I think... your roots are in Virginia. So I think you know a lot about Virginia, even though you've covered the entire nation and this year. So the conventional wisdom, as they always say, is the party out of the white house tends to win the Virginia governor's race. And that kind of trend has seems to be continuing this year as the Democrats right now, I think have the edge right in the Virginia governor's race.
04:58.98
Sam Shirazi
Just big picture. I mean, do you think there's anything that Virginia Republicans can do at this point to maybe right the ship and maybe come back in this race?
05:06.65
Geoffrey Skelley
I think it's unlikely that Republicans can recover and it has very, you know, there'll be stories about Republicans feeling like when some Earl Sears is not good candidate or or, something like that. I think Politico just has something the other day about that.
05:21.22
Geoffrey Skelley
The Republican Governors Association doesn't, is, is not sure they want to spend any more money. But you know, the Republican, the Republicans may have been sort of doomed the moment that Donald Trump won the presidency.
05:33.22
Geoffrey Skelley
not doomed doomed, because I think it's it's worth remembering, as I said, ah ah you don't want to completely ignore the possibility that trends could change or something could be out of the ordinary with an an election cycle.
05:46.17
Geoffrey Skelley
But given that Donald Trump lost Virginia by about, what, six percentage points in the 2024 election, and Virginia has made it a habit of always swinging away from the president's party in the in the next year election for governor.
06:03.57
Geoffrey Skelley
Even if it's a small swing, any swing is is still a Democratic lead, right? If it's any swing in the Democratic direction, Democrats still lead. So this just to say that I think things are going to be very hard in an environment where Republican got elected president unless that Republican president was very popular.
06:20.92
Geoffrey Skelley
or perhaps the Democrat candidate was is really poor. the one exception, the one time there's been this streak in Virginia governor's races of the the candidate from the president's party has lost in every race going back to 1977 for governor, except in 2013, which is the one exception.
06:40.54
Geoffrey Skelley
And that's when Terry McAuliffe, even though Barack Obama was in the White House, won, beating Republican King Cuccinelli. And I you know i think Cuccinelli was... a particularly flawed candidate. And so that played an important part in that outcome. And also the fact that Virginia was not had had trended blue and was not a conservative state anymore. And so I think it all came together to work out in McCall's narrow favor, to to say the least.
07:07.90
Geoffrey Skelley
But that's to say that Democrats ended up with a You know, pretty high quality nominee in Abigail Spanberger. That's not like a comment on her campaign. It's a comment on just a three term member of the U.S. House of Representatives as your gubernatorial candidate, someone who has an impressive background. You know, that that that kind of and it's a very good fundraiser. Like there were a lot of reasons to think she was going to be a good candidate.
07:34.25
Geoffrey Skelley
And Winston-Borke Sears won a statewide race, obviously, is lieutenant governor, so she's she's quite capable. But Republicans just were, you know, yeah yeah that's what, a little Sisyphean or something, kind of pushing a rock up a hill.
07:47.46
Geoffrey Skelley
And the hill is like steep and it keeps rolling back. And a lot of that has to do with just the national environment.
07:53.06
Sam Shirazi
And I think that's what what it's looking right now. And I wanted to kind of ask a specific question about ratings, because I think in these types of elections, the national rating organizations, they tend to be cautious. And, you know, they say, well, yeah, it seems like the Democrats are ahead, but Virginia was relatively close. And so I think most of them have Virginia as lean Democratic. I mean, I think there's a decent argument.
08:17.78
Sam Shirazi
At this point, it's likely Democratic. I don't know if any of the organizations are willing to go that far. But in a race like this, like when do you move something from lean to likely? And it seems like a minor difference, but i mean that's kind of what you're getting paid to do is to make these types of ratings. And you know what's what's the difference between like a lean race and a like a likely race?
08:37.65
Geoffrey Skelley
Yeah, I do think that there is something to the idea that, and this is not to poo-poo, say my former organization. I think the kind of work that Sabato's Crystal Ball and others do is is great. And I read them you to this day. I am a loyal reader of the publication I wrote for.
08:55.85
Geoffrey Skelley
But i would say that there is a little bit of truth to ratings playing catch up a little bit. to what actually happens in November in the sense that, ah ah especially for like, i don't know, you look at like a US House map for like a midterm election and you know they'll you might start out with a bunch of the sort of races you'd expect to be in like the toss up category.
09:17.72
Geoffrey Skelley
But then you know if if one side is relatively favored, even in the in know summer months before an election, say like you know next summer, let's say the generic ballot is like Democrats plus six or seven or something.
09:31.15
Geoffrey Skelley
and it seems like a Democratic-leaning environment, there's some seats that are toss-ups right now that are probably where a Republican incumbent is or Republican-held seat that they'll probably really be lean Democratic, like you were sort just running the numbers in a forecast model or something of that nature.
09:49.84
Geoffrey Skelley
So there is a little bit to the idea that ratings outlets are a little cautious. But at the same time, i think, caution is often warranted. know i don't you know it's It's one thing to to to be maybe a little cautious. It's another to to to not get there. And I think probably if if things continue as they will, or well, I shouldn't say as they will, as they seem to be going right now, things you know if turns remain where they are, i wouldn't be surprised if most ratings outlets are moving this race to to likely Democratic in the fall.
10:25.12
Geoffrey Skelley
you know the traditional campaign start is is Labor Day. Obviously, campaigns start a heck of a lot earlier than that in reality. But I think for if you're thinking about like a state-level race, like a race for governors, national outlets sort of tuning in, ah you know it'd probably be Labor Day or so. If if if things continue as they are right now, you'll start to see maybe some some ratings outlets move this into likely. I think likely would be entirely, likely Democratic would be a very appropriate rating. you know You've got Spanberger up by probably close to 10 points, give or take.
11:00.30
Geoffrey Skelley
And you've even had some polls from Republican pollsters or polls polls on behalf of Republicans and Republican leaning groups that have had Spanberger well ahead. And that just doesn't bode very well.
11:11.51
Geoffrey Skelley
And then you look at the national environment and Donald Trump's underwater and approval rating. And his you know if he's underpro if he's underwater You know, he's doing worse in Virginia because Virginia is a Democratic leaning, not not very blue or anything, but has a slight blue tint to it.
11:27.70
Geoffrey Skelley
And so Trump's probably doing worse in Virginia than he is nationally. And so it all adds up in that sense.
11:34.63
Sam Shirazi
we'll see. We'll see if there are any of those rating changes that are made. And I tend to be pretty cautious. So I understand the idea of, you know, not wanting to kind of assume that the race is going to go one way or another.
11:44.73
Sam Shirazi
i did want to ask kind of an interesting question because you have more of a national perspective. And I haven't honestly focused a lot on the new New Jersey governor's race. I think that has its own interesting dynamics. You hear kind of this talk that maybe New Jersey is actually going to be closer than the Virginia governor's race, race which historically has not happened. Typically, the Democrats do better in New Jersey as opposed to Virginia. Not always, but that's usually what happens.
12:08.45
Sam Shirazi
Do you think this year maybe New Jersey might be closer than Virginia?
12:12.05
Geoffrey Skelley
Yeah, I think that is actually quite possible. what's interesting is that if you look at what happened in the 2024 presidential election, ah ah New Jersey was a state that Kamala Harris carried by 5.9 percentage points She was carrying Virginia by 5.8.
12:30.21
Geoffrey Skelley
And it used to be that New Jersey was just a clearly bluer state than Virginia. Virginia was sort of a purple state with a blue, a light blue hue. And New Jersey was relatively solidly blue and at the federal level.
12:45.29
Geoffrey Skelley
But sometimes Republicans could do well in state elections because of, you know, pushing back on high in high tax rates. you know Someone like Chris Christie was able to have appeal. Also, the timing of elections in ah a year after you know Barack Obama was in the White House, 2009, Republicans did well, and 2013, Christie won re-election there. so And then Democrats swept back into office in 2017 with Donald Trump in office.
13:12.21
Geoffrey Skelley
So you know there is something of the same the same effect that you see in Virginia, where there's sort of a a reaction to what's going on nationally, at least to some extent. But I think also the thing with New Jersey is it is a higher tax state. I do think that there is an argument that you can use as a Republican there, perhaps more effectively, about you know sort of lowering taxes and having that being an argument that can appeal even to some voters who might typically be more Democratic leaning.
13:40.75
Geoffrey Skelley
But the fact that New Jersey just you know got, what, 10 points more? Yeah. Basically went from being a state that Biden carried by about 16 to one that Harris carried by about six.
13:52.68
Geoffrey Skelley
Now, that's a big swing, one of the biggest swings in the country. Only New York was a bigger swing ay just next door. And so what it basically makes me think is that Democrats are favored in New Jersey as well, just like they are in Virginia.
14:05.94
Geoffrey Skelley
I think Mikey Sherrill, the Democratic nominee, current member of the U.S. House, You know, she's probably going to outrate outrage Jack Cittarelli, the Republican nominee. But Cittarelli came very close to actually pulling off an upset in 2021 against incumbent Democrat Governor Phil Murphy. So I think Cittarelli has a lot.
14:23.87
Geoffrey Skelley
of sort of, he's he's a well-established figure at this point. And I think he also, it's interesting. he He was sort of not a Trump guy originally, but he's come around to Trump.
14:34.57
Geoffrey Skelley
And so I kind of wonder if he's he's if he's in a position where he can kind of straddle kind of an old Republican versus new Republican vibes, sort of pre-Trump, post-Trump world enough that there will be some voters who are frustrated with the status quo in New Jersey look around like Democrats have been in power for eight years. You know, I might still be willing to vote for Republican.
14:55.08
Geoffrey Skelley
At the same time, Cheryl is be helped out by the fact Trump's in office. And just like in Virginia, Trump's ratings are not necessarily too hot there. But I do think the fact that you just saw the two states run so closely together terms the margin in the and most recent presidential election, that it is quite possible that if Spanberger wins in November for the Democrats in Virginia, she could end up winning by more than Cheryl does in New Jersey.
15:19.35
Geoffrey Skelley
But I do, you know, to be clear, I think Democrats are favored in both. But there are some have been a lot of interesting things happening when New Jersey's electorate, given what the swings we saw. so i you know, it's entirely possible.
15:30.53
Sam Shirazi
Okay. Well, we'll have to wait and see. i I suspect that might happen, but you know it's a little unpredictable right now. I did want to ask about something Virginia-specific for next year, so 2026.
15:43.59
Sam Shirazi
So I would say that there are um the second district second congressional district in Virginia is certainly going to be a top-tier battleground. I mean, almost every election, it is one of the battleground districts, and that's been historically for a long time.
15:57.46
Sam Shirazi
Second district tends to be a battleground. And I think it's one of the top targets in 2026, which is not a huge surprise. I think the thing that to me that I'm trying to figure out is the first district here in Virginia, which changed after redistricting.
16:09.85
Sam Shirazi
Although the current Republican incumbent, Rob Whitman, has typically done pretty well and has never really had a close election. And the Democrats seem like they're targeting the first district in 2026. How realistic do you think that is? And do you think there's a chance it could flip if there's a blue wave?
16:26.68
Geoffrey Skelley
So the interesting thing with the first district is that you know it's kind of it's kind of weird when you look at it on a map. like If you know anything about Virginia virginia geography, the first district, you think of the Northern Neck.
16:38.52
Geoffrey Skelley
you know I think of it sort of Eastern Virginia, but not the Eastern Shore, up along the Chesapeake Bay. But the district runs around and takes in parts of the Richmond area in such a way that ah it's It's actually a lot more competitive than you'd think. And I think also because of that the sort of areas around Richmond being notably blower than the rest of that district, ah you have a situation where the first actually is a seat that Trump only carried by about five percentage points.
17:16.10
Geoffrey Skelley
in 2024. It was about 52% to 47%. And I believe it's one that makes it one of the only seats in the country, there was like, I think 20 or so, that actually moved a little to the left relative to where it was in the last presidential election.
17:35.94
Geoffrey Skelley
you know For the most part, Trump gained almost everywhere. In fact, you know the thing about that election, and I think the one of the reasons why that election was clearly about dissatisfaction with the incumbent and a dissatisfaction with the the state of the economy and and sort of the state of the world is that Trump did better virtually everywhere.
17:56.18
Geoffrey Skelley
you know There were hardly any pockets, if you look at like county level results and whatnot, where where biden or Harris did better than Biden. And it was still a close election, but there was clearly like this this just very consistent or consistently broad, maybe is the best way to think about it, swing toward Republicans across the country.
18:15.46
Geoffrey Skelley
But there were a handful of places where you did see Democrats do better. And the first is like one of those few spots. So if you're sort of thinking about maybe, maybe it's best to think about this as ah ah situation where what the country was r plus one, roughly nationally, you know, just rounding.
18:36.24
Geoffrey Skelley
And that district was about four points to the right of the country. Well, If the national environment were to swing five or six points toward Democrats, maybe that district could swing, it could flip.
18:49.32
Geoffrey Skelley
I think Democrats, it's the kind of district that Democrats should be getting if they're thinking about winning a majority, because I mean, it helps to target any race or any so any seat, but I think it's it's also helpful to to consider, you know what are your options that might be coming onto the board?
19:07.06
Geoffrey Skelley
you know in the I think about the 2018 election and you know there was like the but Oklahoma City, it was a Oklahoma 5th or 2nd? and the The Oklahoma City-based district or the Charleston-based in South Carolina, you know these districts that seemed unlikely to flip and then they did because the environment and the candidates and and other things came in to work out in your favor. so Now, Whitman is a strong incumbent, so I'm not i'm not here saying he's he's, you know, I think he should be, especially at this point, viewed as a favorite to win re-election.
19:40.72
Geoffrey Skelley
But I think given what we saw, even as the country is swinging, six-ish points toward Republicans nationally, that district got a point bluer.
19:53.34
Geoffrey Skelley
Uh, so but that would suggest that it could be, very competitive and especially if Democrats nominate a strong candidate or if Whitman decides to retire or something, you know, it could, it could get very interesting.
20:04.56
Geoffrey Skelley
Uh, so I have, I have been keeping an eye on the first, uh, cause it's easy to talk about, uh, you know, the second district or the seventh as Republicans still hoping they can, they can, you know maybe overtake things there, Spanberger's old seat, in the second with,
20:21.76
Geoffrey Skelley
Kiggins, Republican incumbent there, is clearly like the Democrats' top target in Virginia. But the first is sort of next on the board in Virginia. yeah
20:32.34
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, I agree. it's It's a fascinating district and we'll see how it plays out. I did want to talk about one thing because in terms of redistricting, Virginia is not going to be affected in 2026, no matter who wins this November, because there's this redistricting commission that was put in place and it's part of the Virginia constitution and it's hard to change the Virginia constitution.
20:50.09
Sam Shirazi
So as all these states talk about changing their lines for the congressional races, Virginia won't join that. just It's just not going happen. And I wonder if...
21:00.69
Sam Shirazi
there's this kind of debate about Democrats unilaterally disarming. Most of the states that have these independent commissions tend to be democratic leading states. And the Republicans seem like they're serious, at least in Texas, about redistricting. Do you think in 2026, it's going to be this kind of arms race and as many states that can redistrict, can redistrict? And then kind of a follow-up question to that, like,
21:25.59
Sam Shirazi
Given that it could be a blue environment because of the way midterms turn out, like how do you redistrict in a cycle where it could be like you're you're kind of basing it off 2024 numbers, but it could be a lot bluer than 2026, 2024.
21:38.24
Sam Shirazi
ah twenty twenty four
21:39.57
Geoffrey Skelley
I would expect in a place like Texas, you know, if Republicans are really going to draw a new map, which seems very likely there, there's a special session that's going on now in Texas. And part of the things that they're expected to take up are redistricting.
21:55.79
Geoffrey Skelley
Donald Trump wants to redistricting. Greg Abbott, the governor had to add and Texas for a special session to consider a topic. or legislation dealing with a certain topic. The governor has to mention it in sort of the call for a special session.
22:10.16
Geoffrey Skelley
And Abbott added congressional districts to the list. So it does seem more likely than not that, I mean, very likely, I would say that they're going to redraw. For Texas Republicans, you know, I think that what what it's going to come down to is they want to add seats.
22:25.26
Geoffrey Skelley
And Texas moved ah fair bit to the right after seemingly you know being like, oh, maybe it's going to be even closer in 2024. It wasn't. ah Part of that was the gains among Latino voters, which we saw in places all over the country, including places like New Jersey for Republicans. And so there are a number of districts that were maybe slightly Democratic or or even kind of lean Democratic, but the way that Texas Republicans were who were in control redistricting after the 2020 census, drew the map.
22:56.96
Geoffrey Skelley
They sort of drew it so that all of their incumbents and a couple of extra seats would be just kind of automatic for Republicans. And they drew Democrats into mostly vote sinks. like they weren't there was There were a couple competitive seats along the border, increasingly competitive seats along on the US-Mexico border and heavily Hispanic districts.
23:16.50
Geoffrey Skelley
But the sort of extent of that swing, we then saw it swing even farther toward Republicans in South Texas, such that some of those seats for Democrats barely survived, like Vicente Gonzalez or Henry Cuellar.
23:31.17
Geoffrey Skelley
Those are seats that Trump carried in 2024. And so the thought now is, well, we could draw some... more Republican voters into those seats by taking them away from surrounding districts that got redder and maybe don't need as many Republican voters. And so I think the consideration is basically, and you've seen North Carolina Republicans be really good at this.
23:51.64
Geoffrey Skelley
You find a mark, sort of a line in the sand, and you say, all right, there's like, and not in you i suspect you run some computer simulations. You're like, there's like a 95% chance that Democrats can't win this seat, even if they get the best sort of conceivable environment.
24:09.53
Geoffrey Skelley
And then you draw the lines to that point. North Carolina Republicans have been really good in sort of their current congressional map of sort of drawing lines based on the most recent data you have, where it's like, yeah, a 54-44 district, district. And it's just right enough that even Democrats do better,
24:23.89
Geoffrey Skelley
you know fifty five forty five district and it's just just right enough that even if democrats do better ah In fact and part because North Carolina, just like Texas, is a state where there are large parts of the state that are pretty inelastic. like They're not a ton of swing voters necessarily.
24:41.62
Geoffrey Skelley
there's you know There's race and ethnicity that can go into that historically. But Texas is different from North Carolina has a much larger Latino population, of course. But North Carolina is even more inelastic. So you can sort of draw it knowing the the the local conditions to be to the point where it will stay in elastic, even in the outcomes, at least to a a large extent. And so I think for Texas Republicans, their challenge is going to be trying to find a balance in some of those districts where there's been a lot of movement between sort of overplaying their hand and being maybe too conservative. If you're just thinking about this from just pure gerrymandering, you know, when I say too conservative, I'm not, I'm not condoning or, or, or,
25:20.40
Geoffrey Skelley
are attacking what they're doing. you're you know They're taking a political action. And you know if you're taking a political action to make gains, you know how you going to best go about doing that? That's the perspective I'm thinking about it from.
25:33.23
Geoffrey Skelley
it seems to me Republicans have some room to work with. i'm not sure they're going to enough to get five seats, as is the plan, or at least is what Donald Trump has asked for. may They may have to get very creative to do that. And they also could open themselves up to lawsuits about the Voting Rights Act.
25:49.16
Geoffrey Skelley
Now, obviously, Voting Rights Act has been weakened to to various extents, but still could you know create trouble potentially, depending on how they go about drawing it.
25:58.75
Geoffrey Skelley
But I think if you think about Texas and you think about some of the other states where there's conversations about this, it's it's you know we can I'm going to let you say something because I've been talking for too long. But it it's you know it's it's sort of about understanding the geography and then using Dave's redistricting app to have some fun drawing districts. Because honestly, anyone can do it now.
26:21.50
Geoffrey Skelley
You don't have to have any sort of special software to draw an incredible gerrymander. Yeah.
26:27.72
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, I remember when Virginia was redistricting, I spent a little too much time coming up with my ideal maps. But, well, i I will let you go. I did have one question to kind of cap things in terms of these dual things that are going on. So let's assume that this year in Virginia is going to be pretty good for Democrats.
26:46.96
Sam Shirazi
They win Virginia. They feel like they have momentum going into the midterms. Obviously, historical patterns, party that is out of the White House tends to do well in the midterms. But then you got this thing with the redistricting and it's maybe an attempt to try to dull some of that. I mean, what are you seeing big picture for the midterms? Do you think these potential redistricting changes are enough to dull the momentum that Democrats have or at some point is the kind of die cast and the midterms are going to come and typically the party ah of the White House does well in the midterms?
27:19.99
Geoffrey Skelley
I mean, look, I think it's very likely that Democrats are going to pick up seats in the House. I think the question is, though, you know where if if you're sort of adjusting where we are right now ah in terms of where the maps were after the 2024 election and sort of recalculating them for 2026,
27:37.92
Geoffrey Skelley
if A number of states, not just Texas, pursue this path. And you have things like Missouri taking out the Kansas City seat that's held by Democrats by cracking Kansas City across you know three or four districts, or they can't you know Jackson County, that area of Western Missouri, across three or four districts in order to pick up another seat.
27:59.13
Geoffrey Skelley
And if you see Kansas pursue something like that with Sharice David's district, i just west of there on the other side of the state line in Kansas, from from Kansas City.
28:10.29
Geoffrey Skelley
If you see those kinds of actions, the problem for Democrats is they don't have a lot of places they can they can sort of respond. And to your point, it's because a lot of the states where they have the upper hand, they have installed commissions.
28:23.85
Geoffrey Skelley
or some other bipartisan or nonpartisan approach that's going to make it very difficult. There are also constitutional limitations. you know I saw Kathy Hochul, the governor New York, say something today about, you know if Republicans are to do this, we're going to fight fire with fire.
28:37.37
Geoffrey Skelley
Well, the thing about a threat from Democrats to redistricting New York is that I'm pretty sure the New York state constitution only allows one redistricting, the legislature basically, or the the sort of system they have there, which they have an independent commission, and if the commission fails and the legislature draws it,
28:52.75
Geoffrey Skelley
They're allowed to do that once per decennial census cycle. And so I don't think they're in a position to do that. Now, obviously, you know, the law might seemingly say one thing, but you can try to push back and see if you can find a weakness in there that maybe someone else didn't know and exploit.
29:08.46
Geoffrey Skelley
know, California talked about that with Democrats. They're talking about trying to gerrymander a California issue there to their, you know, a much greater advantage than they even currently have there. But they, again, have an independent redistricting commission there.
29:20.73
Geoffrey Skelley
you're going to need to get like a ballot referendum with a constitutional amendment passed very quickly, like this fall, and then have the process carried out so that Democrats can gerrymander California all by the time.
29:34.29
Geoffrey Skelley
mean, maybe you know by their June primary of next year. I mean, it's a short timeline for a lot of this stuff. And the thing is, Republicans are in more spots. There are more states where Republicans are in control That it's a state legislature that can draw and there might not be a rule against multiple redistrictings in the same decennial census cycle.
29:53.78
Geoffrey Skelley
And that gives them a better opportunity. And Texas is just the most obvious example, but, you know, states like Missouri are in this conversation and and some other ones potentially too.
30:02.97
Sam Shirazi
Yeah. Well, we'll have to wait and see what happens next year. Obviously you have to get through the, uh, Virginia elections and the New Jersey elections. Well, I really appreciate you taking the time coming on. I think, uh, really interesting, always hearing your perspective. You obviously have a lot of, uh, knowledge about everything. So I always like talking politics with you and yeah, thanks again for coming on.
30:19.82
Geoffrey Skelley
Thanks for having me, Sam. Fun to nerd out. And Virginia is still the best state as we know.
30:25.21
Sam Shirazi
Yep. I definitely agree with that. Well, uh,
30:28.43
Geoffrey Skelley
Or best, sorry, best Commonwealth as well, just to be clear.
30:30.13
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, exactly. you got to say, you got to say come in well.
30:31.24
Geoffrey Skelley
Yeah, yeah.
30:32.68
Sam Shirazi
Well, anyways, thanks again for joining me. And this has been Federal Fallout.
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