00:00.71
Sam Shirazi
Hi, everyone. I'm Sam Shirazi, and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections. This is a special bonus episode that will look at the Wisconsin Supreme Court race and what it means for Virginia this November.
00:16.38
Sam Shirazi
So it was a really crazy race in Wisconsin for the Supreme Court election there. Wisconsin always has really competitive elections, and this was no exception. Both sides came in. They spent a lot of money.
00:29.41
Sam Shirazi
They really emphasize this seat on the Supreme Court because it would decide the balance of the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Currently, there's a four to three liberal majority. And after the election, there will continue to be a four to three liberal majority because the candidate that the Democrats backed for the Wisconsin Supreme Court won that election, it looks like between nine and 10 points.
00:52.21
Sam Shirazi
And this was a a really big win for Democrats in Wisconsin because obviously Both sides had invested a lot in this race, but also Elon Musk had come in and he had spent a lot of money to try to help the Republicans flip this state Supreme Court seat, but they weren't able to do that.
01:11.67
Sam Shirazi
And overall, it was just a really good night for Democrats. There were two special elections in Florida in deep red seats. And while Democrats didn't win those elections, They did a lot better than they did in 2024.
01:26.02
Sam Shirazi
So really across the board, we're seeing a really strong environment right now for Democrats. And I think there's a combination of factors. One of them is just the reality that anytime a party comes into power, the opposition party tends to gain both with their own base that gets fired up because of what's going on in Washington, but also because people start moving over to the other side because they might not be happy what with what the ruling party is doing.
01:52.94
Sam Shirazi
And then there's also the reality that Democrats now are doing really well with with what are called high propensity voters. So high propensity voters are those voters who always come out, vote in every election. Doesn't matter if it's a school board, or they will vote in every single election. Typically those voters skew to be more college educated, wealthier voters. And those voters have during the Trump era really become a lot more democratic.
02:19.95
Sam Shirazi
The Republican coalition has become what's known more as low propensity voters. So those are voters that typically don't vote a whole lot other than for president. And President Trump was able to bring them out in 2024.
02:34.12
Sam Shirazi
But the downside for Republicans is those voters do not always show up in these elections that are not presidential elections. Obviously, this Wisconsin Supreme Court race was in April right after the presidential election.
02:48.61
Sam Shirazi
and it was just difficult for the Republicans to get out their base. And I think that was one thing that Elon Musk was trying to do. He was trying to come in and really reach those voters that are hard to reach.
02:59.65
Sam Shirazi
But the reality is, it seems like really President Trump is the only one who's able to turn out those voters, and he can really only do them for presidential elections. And so I think that there was a lot going on in Wisconsin. And you know obviously, I'm not an expert in Wisconsin, but But clearly the Democrats had a good night.
03:19.22
Sam Shirazi
And so the question becomes, what does all this mean for Virginia? So, I mean, it it's hard to extrapolate to November because this was one election in one state in April.
03:32.98
Sam Shirazi
But I think one thing to keep in mind is the turnout was relatively high in this election. I think some of the observers said that it was going to be close to midterm level turnout. And when you're seeing that level of turnout, the Democrats are still able to win.
03:48.00
Sam Shirazi
think the Republicans have to ask themselves, you know, what's going to happen in November in Virginia. And, you know, realistically, most people think that Democrats started off with an advantage just because they were not in the White House. and And I've talked about it before. The party that's not in the White House typically does well in Virginia elections. So I think most people would say that Democrats started off with that advantage.
04:12.72
Sam Shirazi
And you know Given that Virginia governor's races are almost always competitive, even if the Democrats have an advantage, I think most people also said that it was still going to be a competitive race this year in Virginia.
04:25.02
Sam Shirazi
I think once the inauguration happened and the scale of what President Trump and Elon Musk were are going to do in terms of Doge and the restructuring of the federal government, the laying off of workers, cutting federal funds,
04:40.19
Sam Shirazi
I think you know most observers quickly realize that obviously Virginia is dependent on federal jobs and federal money. And so it has to have an impact on what's going on on the campaign trail in Virginia, and it's going to have an impact on the election.
04:56.29
Sam Shirazi
the The question now becomes, you know is this a race where the Republicans are in a tough spot, but they might be able to to find a way to win? Or is this getting to the point where there's not a whole lot the Republicans can do to win this election in 2025.
05:13.39
Sam Shirazi
twenty twenty five Now, obviously, it's very early. There isn't a whole lot of data in terms of polling. So I don't want to draw big conclusions. I don't want to say, you know, Democrats are definitely going to win in Virginia this year. But I think the risk for the Republicans is, you know, the perception is things are getting pretty dicey for them. And while it seems like the election is a is a long way off,
05:34.22
Sam Shirazi
We really aren't that far from Election Day. Election Day is seven months away. Early voting in Virginia will start in late September. So that is not an eternity away. and And once people have kind of a perception of how things are going, it's hard to turn around the ship and kind of right the ship for the Republicans. And so the question they have to ask themselves is, you know, what is their strategy going into November to try to win this race? Because the danger for them is it just keeps slipping away.
06:04.24
Sam Shirazi
and And there's a few examples of this happening in recent Virginia history. Like I said, most Virginia elections end up being pretty close, but I think the two exceptions were 2009 and 2017. So 2009, the economy was really struggling.
06:19.93
Sam Shirazi
Virginia Republicans really were had a lot of momentum and there was really nothing the Democrats could win could can do to win that race in 2009. And nine and the democrat and excuse me the Republicans had a huge win in two thousand and nine in virginia 2017 was a little bit similar dynamic, I'd say, to 2025 in Wisconsin. In 2017, Democrats were really fired up because of the first Trump administration.
06:46.98
Sam Shirazi
and while it seemed close for most of that campaign, at the end, the Democrats really just got a big win and were able to win that race by about nine points.
06:56.91
Sam Shirazi
And so I think there's a risk for the Virginia Republicans that this could be a repeat of 2017 if there isn't some sort of change game changing moment.
07:07.12
Sam Shirazi
and And I should just caveat all that by saying, look, the reality is seven months is not a huge amount of time, but there's an old adage that a week is a long time in politics. So there's a lot that can still happen.
07:19.07
Sam Shirazi
I don't want to make it seem like this is not going to be a competitive election in Virginia. I think there are a lot of different factors you have to look at. You have to look at obviously Virginia being a more competitive state at for state elections versus federal elections. You have to look at polarization. a lot of voters just end up voting for their, the red team or the blue team. And it's hard to persuade a lot of voters to change their minds. You have to look at the possibility that Elon Musk can come in and spend a lot of money in Virginia. Although as we saw in Wisconsin, that didn't really make too much of a difference. And if anything,
07:57.13
Sam Shirazi
the Wisconsin Democrats were really able to use Elon Musk as a foil and to tie the Republican candidate for spring the state Supreme Court to Elon Musk and were able to you know energize their voters by going after Elon Musk. So it's kind of a question mark how much of impact he could have in Virginia.
08:17.53
Sam Shirazi
But regardless, obviously, he has a lot of money. And if he wanted to come in, he could he could come in. So those are all things that we have to think about when it comes to Virginia that it's not a given that Democrats are going to win and they're going to have a huge win.
08:32.96
Sam Shirazi
But I think with each day, as things are kind of going the way they're going, the odds of a kind of decent democratic victory in Virginia go up. And there has to be some sort of game changing moment at some point, if the Republicans really want to get back into this thing, because the reality is it's unlikely that Democrats are going to have a primary for governor and,
08:55.75
Sam Shirazi
it's you know it's almost certain that former congresswoman Abigail Spanberger is going to be the democratic nominee we'll see if the republicans have a primary we'll find out on tuesday on thursday with the filing deadline and we'll see if the two candidates who are trying to get on the ballot dave larock and amanda chase are able to get the 10 000 required signatures to get on the ballot but know democratic nominee is has been set for a while she's been fundraising for a while And she's got her message going. She's been opposing, former Congresswoman Spanberger has been opposing what's been going on in DC with Elon Musk and Doge and the attempts to fire federal workers.
09:38.90
Sam Shirazi
And so that's a pretty clear message. And the Republicans have not been able to come up with a kind coherent response other than to say that it's just basically necessary to have some of these workers laid off.
09:51.29
Sam Shirazi
And so, you know, I, I think it's it's going to be tough for the Virginia Republicans, to be honest. Now, having said all that, I do want to have some humility because i think November of 2024 taught a lot of people, particularly Democrats, that the reality is, you know, there there are a lot of voters that support Donald Trump. There are a lot of voters who believe in kind of that vision of America. And it's easy when you're in more of a bubble in certain areas to think, you know, that's how everyone in the country thinks and and look how how great the Democrats are doing in these elections. And obviously Democrats are going to continue winning and nothing is determined politics. Politics tends to surprise me. So I don't, I don't want to make it seem like there's no way the Republicans have a chance this year in Virginia.
10:45.78
Sam Shirazi
Having said all that, I mean, i think the big difference between November 2025 and November 2024 is going to be that these low propensity Trump voters, I don't know if they're going to necessarily come out for the Republicans.
11:00.98
Sam Shirazi
It's still an open question. i will say we do have an example from 2021 when when Governor Youngkin was able to win that election and and his campaign was able to turn out a lot of those people, particularly in rural areas.
11:15.64
Sam Shirazi
And that was kind of part of his secret to success in 2021 was he did relatively better in the suburbs, but he was able to really juice turnout in the rural areas. So in theory, the Republicans could do something similar like that in Virginia, where they basically juice the turnout in rural areas, keep the margins relatively close in suburban areas, and then, you know, get a narrow victory like Governor Youngkin did in 2021.
11:43.57
Sam Shirazi
You know, the issue is 2021 was a very different environment. Obviously, we had a Democratic president. We had kind of COVID fatigue at that point. i think it's going to be hard to see the Republicans cutting the margins in the suburbs right now. It could happen, but it it just doesn't seem like the environment where that would happen.
12:02.20
Sam Shirazi
you know Obviously, if President Trump comes in and campaigns or Elon Musk comes in and spends a lot of money, it's possible the rural areas in Virginia will have strong turnout and the Republicans can count on that. But it's also possible those areas will not have a lot of turnout because it's an off-year election and Democrats will get an even bigger win because the turnout just isn't there for the Republicans. So a lot of unknowns. I wanted to just do this podcast to give you some of my thoughts after the Wisconsin elections. And and I think it's easy to overread one election results.
12:36.44
Sam Shirazi
But the reality is both parties were looking at Wisconsin because it was the first big statewide contest, a lot of voters showing up. And they gave a pretty clear answer in Wisconsin with the Democrats winning the state Supreme Court race.
12:52.52
Sam Shirazi
And so I'll be curious to see if there's any sort of recalibration on the part of the Virginia Republicans. I think obviously Virginia Democrats are going to be happy. They're going to just kind of chug along, do their plan of opposing the changes to the federal government, which they seem to think is going to work, obviously, given how much Virginia is dependent on the federal government.
13:14.56
Sam Shirazi
And I guess the last thing I should note, I didn't want to spend too much time on the Florida special election because... The Democrats didn't end up winning those. And, and you know, obviously Florida is is a different political environment than Virginia.
13:28.47
Sam Shirazi
But there were two separate elections, and one of them was more in the Daytona Beach area, and then one of them was more in the Pensacola area. And the Democrats did relatively well in the Pensacola area, which is obviously home to a large military installation.
13:46.100
Sam Shirazi
lot of federal workers, both civilian and military, who are dependent on the federal government for their jobs and, or even if they weren't laid off, would still be affected by some of the changes that are going on in DC.
13:59.97
Sam Shirazi
And so I thought it was interesting that Democrats did pretty well in Pensacola military area. And, you know, you have to think, is that also going to happen in Hampton Roads?
14:11.62
Sam Shirazi
I think the Virginia Republicans are often describing the federal workers as just being in Northern Virginia. You know, Republicans don't do well in Northern Virginia anyway, so the changes to the federal government aren't going to be a big deal because most of the people affected are in Northern Virginia and they're already going to vote for the Democrats.
14:28.40
Sam Shirazi
I think the danger in that thinking is that if military the military workers, either a civilian or uniform military, start getting nervous about maybe losing their jobs or maybe they're unhappy with some of the things that are happening and happening in D.C.,
14:45.04
Sam Shirazi
they may also turn to the Democrats. And typically, more military-aligned voters historically have been more Republican, but we have seen times when they've swung towards the Democrats. And Hampton Roads is known for being a real swing swing area where one election will vote for Democrats, the next election will vote for Republicans, and I'll just kind of keep going back and forth.
15:05.33
Sam Shirazi
And obviously, there are some competitive House of Delegates races in Hampton Roads. And so, you know, if if the issue with the federal workers reaches Hampton Roads, I think the Republicans are going to be in even more danger than just the issues they're already having in Northern Virginia. So anyways, lots of things going on with these special elections. I will probably still talk about it during the regular podcast, which will come out Saturday morning. But I did want to talk about it right now because obviously it's on people's minds. And then also on Thursday will be the filing deadline. So I think there's going to be a lot of
15:39.78
Sam Shirazi
things that we can talk about with the filing deadline and potential primaries. And I also wanted to talk about the Democratic primary some more, given the results in Wisconsin. So anyways, exciting times in Virginia elections.
15:53.24
Sam Shirazi
keep Keep paying attention. And I hope that you will listen to the podcast that will come out on Saturday morning. And thanks, everyone, for listening. And I will see you next time on Federal Fallout.
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