Hi everyone, I'm Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections. This is a special bonus interview of Joe Szymanski.
00:11.73
Sam Shirazi
Joe, thanks for joining.
00:13.35
Joe
I appreciate you having me on tonight, Sam. Thank you very much.
00:16.42
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, so one of the things I respect about Joe is he's he's able to be very objective in his political analysis, which I think is a very hard thing to do. And I try my best to do it as well. But, you know, it's We all have our blinders, all have our biases. So I try to get different perspectives.
00:31.05
Sam Shirazi
And Joe comes from more of a Republican background. And I also want to get that perspective in terms of what's happening this year in Virginia. So I guess to start off, you know I'm going to talk a little bit about the GOP ticket. Obviously, they've been having some issues, but kind of recent news is that they're making some peace deals. And it appears there's going to be a rally next week in Northern Virginia with all the different Joe, do you think that November, you know, things are going to be good in terms of the ticket being able work together on the Republican side?
01:05.06
Sam Shirazi
joe do you think that by november you know things are going to be pretty good in terms of the ticket being able to work together on the republican side
01:12.73
Joe
You know, that's one of those things I think you'd say you hope so, right? Like you'd hope the ticket at that point will be working together. I mean, not to mince words. The environment looks pretty bad for my party. You know, that's not something to mince words about. It looks like going be an uphill climb.
01:26.47
Joe
I think no matter what the how you know friendly the ticket was with each other from whatever point it was on. But, you know, a United ticket, you know, can be the difference between, you know, a loss, but a loss that doesn't cost you, you know,
01:42.32
Joe
more than, you know, five seats in the House of Delegates versus, man, if you don't have any unity at all, then, you know, what's what's about to happen there is ah ah potentially a real blowout in House of Delegates and something that could very, very quickly lead to the Democrats trending towards majority in the lower house of the Virginia legislature.
02:04.02
Sam Shirazi
Yeah. And so one thing, I mean, I have this personal theory about ticket splitting and how it's pretty much dying out in Virginia. You know, depends. Sometimes you have strong incumbents that might be able to overcome.
02:14.88
Sam Shirazi
But, you know, if the Democrats are doing pretty well at the top of ticket, at first, I wanted to talk about Lieutenant Governor Attorney General. You know, you hear things that the Attorney General race could be more competitive because you obviously have an incumbent with a current Attorney General Jason Meares running for reelection.
02:32.14
Sam Shirazi
I mean, do you, what is your number in terms of the ticket splitting? You know, if it's within two points, is within four points? I mean, what do you think Meares needs to have a shot in the Attorney General race?
02:44.64
Joe
Well, I mean, we have kind of an example from when we saw and in the 2021 race, he had a similar scenario. He an incumbent attorney general running, this time on Mark Herring. You know, he he did about a point better than the rest of the ticket. I don't think his race was actually even officially called until the next day, unlike the races for governor and lieutenant governor, which were called that night.
03:05.77
Joe
i I don't believe they actually called Miara's Herring race until the next morning because of You know, he held it a little closer around Loudoun County in Northern Virginia, where he did a little better there where Herring was from.
03:19.65
Joe
so we got a little bit of an incumbency boost there, and that got him within about a point. Now, you know, does that mean, you know, does Miara's need this race, the other two races, to be within a point to be successful?
03:32.58
Joe
I think that's harder to say. Herring, you know, i think the big thing was with him, he faced a primary from now the 2025 nominee, And Jay Jones, faced that primary in 2021 from Jones.
03:45.74
Joe
You do wonder it to a certain extent, did that hurt him at all? You know you kind of did have these extra little bit of attacks that were coming in running coming from a primary. Meares has not had to face that at all on the Republican side. So you know maybe you give it... i'd say It would have to be a two-point difference, which it's very, very hard to see coming through for Republicans at this point. I would say for Mijares to win, i would say he have to least be you know i'd say two I would say two points, I think, would have to be the margin in the other two races in favor of the Democrats for there to be a real ticket-splitting result where Mijares could, I think, sneak through.
04:21.93
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, I mean, that makes sense. And I think 2021 is a useful ah ah analogy. The other thing I wanted to ask you about, because I know we can kind of go through the races, but one thing that I appreciate about you, you periodically will post your Virginia House of Delegates ratings, which I respect because for me, I'm trying to figure out what's going on.
04:36.47
Joe
Yeah.
04:41.08
Sam Shirazi
And you know obviously there's certain seats that you think, okay, those are Harris seats that the GOP is holding. Those are going to be competitive. But even in some of those, there's pretty strong incumbents. So it's hard to really get a read on it.
04:55.28
Sam Shirazi
i mean, big picture, you know, what's your sense right now in the House of Delegates, keeping in mind some of the GOP incumbents and that some of them could survive under ticket splitting scenarios?
05:05.06
Joe
Yeah, so obviously with the House of Delegates, this has always been a really fascinating thing in Virginia. Republicans have always, even and kind of in this new era of politics, kind of post-2016 in Virginia...
05:18.33
Joe
Virginia Republicans have always had pretty strong success down as you get down the ballot. You look at these local races, you look at the House of Delegates, they've been able to overperform the presidential baseline a whole, whole lot in these races.
05:31.02
Joe
But the fact is, Democrats are going to start from a pretty strong position. They already have 51 seats from taking back the majority in 2023, narrowly. I actually have them at 52 currently. I have them currently flipping House District 57.
05:45.90
Joe
That is the suburban Henrico Eastern, I think three most eastern precincts in Goochland House District in the Richmond suburbs. That is held currently by Republican David Owen.
05:57.80
Joe
I have Democrats favored there currently. if you If you've been following at all of Virginia politics recently, you know that the Richmond suburbs have just continually gotten worse and worse. it doesn't really seem to matter what the year is and what the environment is. it just seems like the Richmond suburbs have just been getting worse and worse.
06:16.57
Joe
ONC is really the... Currently, really the only seat that truly defines that. There's one other that I'll get to just a little bit later here. But Owen's seat's the only one. So I've got them already started at 52.
06:27.62
Joe
I think it's very, very hard to see Democrats getting even to just their current number 51, I think, currently with how the environment's going. It's very, very hard to see Democrats doing any worse than what they have currently.
06:40.30
Joe
So that puts them already in a very, very strong position. And then you look at that what I've got. I've got seven toss-up seats currently right now. That includes actually a lot around the Virginia and Hampton Roads area. You have House District 82. That's the Petersburg area seat between Kimberly Pope Adams and Kim Taylor.
07:01.92
Joe
You've got House District 71. That's the Amanda Batten seat around Williamsburg and James City there. You've got House District 86. That's the AC Courts. Doza's seat, House District 89, Republican incumbent Baxter Ennis is retiring there.
07:15.57
Joe
That leaves an open seat in this already pretty competitive Chesapeake-Suffolk area seat. And then you've also got two, and they also have a Kerry Coyner seat, House District 75.
07:25.82
Joe
I have that currently rated as a toss-up. I know a lot of people disagree with me on that. Coyner is a very historically strong incumbent seat. But there are a lot of negatives to the numbers currently out there in Chesterfield. It's, I believe, around a Harris plus seven seat.
07:39.34
Joe
It's one of the weirder seats, I'll admit, in the entire, I would say on the entire house map. It's centered around ah Hopewell City, which is a... about, I think it's around 52% African-American city, but it's also a seat that has historically had awful, awful turnout. Again, no matter the advantageous to the year for Democrats, they've historically struggled to turn out their voters there, no matter really what it was.
08:06.27
Joe
So that's a really interesting thing ben and there. And then there two other toss-up seats I have. I have House District... I have 41, which is the Blacksburg-Montgomery seat around there. And then I have Hesedrick-22, which is the one Republican-held seat in Prince William County from ah Ian Lovejoy that I expect to be really competitive this year as well. So it's going be an interesting race.
08:24.45
Joe
There's a couple of other seats that I have as, like, leaning, likely Republican that could come on the board. If Democrats can, you know, kind of continue to improve in the poll numbers, if the year keeps looking really good for them, what other seats could come on the board? There's a couple of others ah in in the areas that I could really see, especially around Fredericksburg, I think could be a really key area that if Democrats continue kind of gain, you know, talking about Abigail Spanberger, you're talking, you know, get you say State Senator Ghazala Hashmi, you know, those are the seats that we're talking about here around Fredericksburg that could really, yeah I've got his leaning Republican right now.
08:58.39
Joe
That could immediately turn to be ah very competitive and could be flip targets if this year continues to trend better and better for Democrats.
09:05.12
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, I mean, i think that's really helpful. And, you know, those are certainly going to be like the top competitive seats. I did want ask you, guess, a follow up, because the last two Virginia governor's elections have basically been wave elections where there have been flips that were pretty unexpected the House in 2017 and 2021. And, you you know, what of maybe the lean or likely seats for the Republicans?
09:28.84
Sam Shirazi
You know, what's the kind of sleeper pick you have for maybe a surprise where if the Democrats have a good night in November, they'd be able to pick it up
09:36.08
Joe
I think there's two interesting ones for me. see, when you get what the thing with Virginia Republicans is that when you start getting into their lean and likely seats, you do start getting into seats that President Trump actually did win, and he didn't just win by like a point or two. We're talking about seats that he won by five, six, seven, eight points.
09:54.06
Joe
So that's when starting to talk about not just Winning the voters you already won and convincing the turnout. You're actually talking about probably winning some voters who did vote for President Trump in 2024 in some of these seats.
10:05.39
Joe
For me, I have two that I really have my eye on. The first one I think is more likely of the two to be surprised. I have House District 99. ninety nine It's currently held by Antateta.
10:16.96
Joe
She was first elected in 2023. She's a freshman member. ah This is about, I believe it's a Trump plus five seat, but this is a northern part of Virginia Beach that's seen some interesting trends left. I think technically the seat trended left it to against the way of the state.
10:33.74
Joe
I think in 2024, this is an interesting seat that I'm really interested in. Just kind of see how it acts this year. I think if there's a one that I have in the likely range currently that I could very quickly see moving into a very competitive territory, it's that one. I'm not super trustful of the Democratic candidate there.
10:51.28
Joe
I don't think they're going fund it, but we like you said, we've seen surprises before. I think AC Cordosa in 2021 more than Kim Taylor. Kim Taylor, was you know she had some funding. She had some backing.
11:02.75
Joe
AC Cordosa in 2021 kind of came out of nowhere. Someone who had zero money. Really had zero expectations. That's what we're going to be kind of talking about here. The other one I think is a more of a stretch, but I think should be noted. House District 52, the Lynchburg seat, had a big flip back to Trump towards Trump in 2024 from its 2020 version. But...
11:23.13
Joe
twenty twenty version but This is a seat where turnout can fluctuate. are some internal problems within the Lynchburg GOP that have seen some struggles in the local election. There's a lot of infighting there between very conservative wings and the conservative wing of the state of the local party apparatus there that's seen some issues with turnout.
11:42.48
Joe
In fact, Wendell Walker delegate there, won by less than 10 points. And what was certainly a bit of a surprise there because Republicans basically didn't do any early turnout vote there because some members of the Republican establishment there basically just don't believe in early voting.
11:56.80
Joe
So they basically hold all their chips until election day there. Sometimes that works out in high turnout elections, but when you're talking about sometimes these low turnout elections that you could be seeing, could that put House District 52 on the board?
12:07.58
Joe
I think that's really interesting question. We're to have to see it's going answered.
12:10.58
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, I mean, I think it would take really good night for Democrats. But obviously, it's happened in the past with some of these wave elections. Now, I want to kind of flip the script a little bit. I'll start with the House, because yeah I like talking you about the House, you know, a lot of these details in the House. And let's say, you know, what is the seat that the Republicans have the best chance at flipping? I mean, in my mind, the most serious candidate that the Republicans have against the Democrats, Tim Anderson in House District 97.
12:38.50
Sam Shirazi
obviously, that was a Harris, I think, plus six or plus eight seats, something like that. So it's it's pretty tough numbers. There's the House District 21 in Western Prince William, which on paper should be competitive, but the Republicans have not raised any money in that district.
12:53.14
Sam Shirazi
So what do you think in terms of the seat most likely to flip?
12:56.39
Joe
I think you hit the nail pretty well on the head there, Sam. On paper, it should absolutely be House District 21. I believe this was only about a Harris plus two or three seat. is the part of Prince William County that if you talk about after seemingly taking a pretty big shift towards the Democrats, have not just in local elections, but also in...
13:16.82
Joe
regular you know midterm and presidential year elections have taken this step back towards Republicans. House District 21, again, on paper should be the seat most targeted, but for whatever reason, it seems like Republicans just aren't going there.
13:30.24
Joe
None of the candidates that would be good for the bench there, neither the board or supervisors member or the school board member who I believe both would, who represent the The seats and on those two bodies of government who I believe both live in this district and would overlap if this district decided to run.
13:46.04
Joe
There's not really that great of a bench below that. A lot of people passed on the seat, according to my understanding. It seems like, like you said, it looks like Republicans are going to most go after House District 97.
13:58.10
Joe
They like Tim Anderson as a candidate there. And crucially, Tim Anderson has the ability to self-fund a little bit. He's got a business background that's given him some money. He's able to self-fundraise a little bit and be able to kind of fund his campaign in that way.
14:12.20
Joe
In a race that Republicans are gonna be doing a lot of defense in this year, that's going to be crucial in a race like 97. Do I think they flip it? No. Would it surprise me for that to be the closest race among current Democrat-held seats when we all the votes are counted in November of this year?
14:27.54
Joe
It absolutely would not surprise me to see if that one's the race that ends up being the closest of the lot.
14:32.50
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, I mean, that makes sense. And that's kind of what I've been seeing, but I guess we'll find out in November. I did want to ask you something else, again, because I think oftentimes with election commentary and people on social media, they there's often groupthink. and And I think this year, the general consensus is Democrats are in for a good year.
14:53.89
Sam Shirazi
And it's hard to tell, is it going to be a big wave, little wave, but I'm trying to grapple with that. And part of what I'm trying to not fall into is to just assume, oh, yeah, the Democrats are definitely going to win because of historical patterns or whatever, because of fundraising or you know you look at all the metrics.
15:09.79
Sam Shirazi
I mean, could you try to paint a scenario where maybe the Republicans, even if they don't win, like make it kind of competitive and it's it's not this this you know easy cakewalk that everyone seems to think the Democrats have this year in Virginia?
15:23.41
Joe
Well, yeah, I think that's let's both – I think it's easier to say than and to be done. But I think you can you can paint a picture here, though, I think, for Republicans in in where they do a lot better than maybe one would expect this this upcoming year. I think it just won, you know, maybe some of the heat in the federal government calms down a little bit, you know.
15:44.20
Joe
Uh, maybe some of the cuts that you see so from Doge, it doesn't seem like a whole lot of those are really going to come through fruition that were reported. So, you know, the fact that those aren't going to really come to fruition, Does that maybe kind of cool down some of the anger in Northern Virginia in the aftermath of that? I'm not so sure of that, but let's again, we're playing hypotheticals here. So let's say that happens.
16:04.76
Joe
You know, you kind of see maybe a simmer down in Northern Virginia of that anger. know, things kind of cool down a little bit. Maybe you kind of see that heat cool down a little bit that can allow Republicans to get in here.
16:16.55
Joe
I also do want to point out here, I think if it was not going to be kind of this Democrat swing year that seems to be happening, I do think outside of, I think, of Abigail Spanberger, I do think primary voters for the Democrats surrounded her surrounded her with two very ideological candidates. Ghazala Hashemi was very clearly the progressive candidate.
16:38.58
Joe
kind of the major candidates for the Lieutenant Governor's seat. Jay Jones said, I think very clearly trying to take the more progressive stances between him and Shannon Taylor in the AG primary.
16:48.72
Joe
you know In theory, that's something I think if it was us you know maybe more of a fifty fifty year, that's something where I think Democrats would be hit on more.
16:58.84
Joe
Both of those folks were in the legislature. They both took votes in the legislature were certainly quite progressive. you know That's a very interesting thing that's happened here. You know, they vote, which could be, you know, held on to and grasp in a general election. There are things for hooligans to use there.
17:16.05
Joe
I just find it to be very hard to that really have the effect of just, I think, the pure anger that's going to be going on in Virginia at the current of the Trump administration. And what is a blue state and what a state that it did not vote for him. I think there's going to be too much anger there, but I think if you're talking about these hypothetical situations here, I think that's kind of where we're going to have to kind of come down to, kind of this cooling of tensions in Northern Virginia.
17:37.95
Joe
Maybe they're able to grasp on some of the more left-wing things that Hashby and Jones have supported. that kind of drags down the rest of the ticket a little bit. That's kind of the pathway it would have to be.
17:49.75
Joe
i don't think that's going to happen, but I think in the hypothetical that you're talking about there, talking about making it close, I think that's the angle where it would have to come from.
17:57.04
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, I mean, that that makes sense. So I guess what we have to look, the the question I have is, so you have Musk out of the picture.
18:05.63
Sam Shirazi
It sounds like he's kind of retired from politics, which overall is a good thing for the Republicans, I would say.
18:06.94
Joe
Yes.
18:12.64
Sam Shirazi
ah But obviously, you still have President Trump out there, and he's the leader of the Republican Party. And There's really not a lot the Republicans can do other than to run, if not with him, but at least, you know, they can't really keep too just too much distance from Trump.
18:26.24
Sam Shirazi
What do you think President Trump's role will be this November? do you think if he comes to campaign that would help the Republicans, hurt the Republicans? you think the his political advisors are saying, you know, maybe stay out of Virginia because it's one of those states that probably is not going to end well? What do you think the President Trump's role is going to be in this campaign?
18:44.85
Joe
I think at this moment in time, there's no doubt that President Trump is going to be a net negative on the Virginia Republican ticket in 2025, just as how he was a net negative on the ticket in 2017. I mean, and there's no I think there's no use denying that Joe Biden was a net negative for the ticket for Democrats in 2021. That's just kind of seemed to be in the pattern here for much of the past eight, you know, 12 years now, basically what we've been doing of those ah ah kind of governor elections here.
19:13.38
Joe
of the last eight years, that just seems to be kind of be the case here where if the president is unpopular, which he's been the last two times Virginia's held a governor's election,
19:24.28
Joe
he That will play a major effect in how these elections go. And that is a true thing. And I think you're right. I do think that in the end, President Trump's political advisors will probably see the winds are going in Virginia and will probably tell him it's probably not worth it to go campaign in Virginia. and Nor do I think really much of the ticket necessarily wants to campaign.
19:44.11
Joe
points of the campaign in Virginia right now at this moment. I think they're probably going to want him to kind of take a step back and let them try and campaign on their own goals and volitions. i mean, you have an incumbent lieutenant governor running for governor.
19:55.55
Joe
You have the incumbent attorney general running. They're going to want to try and run on their record in this election. Again, is that likely going to alleviate the the anger and the frustration that a lot of voters have with the Trump administration right now.
20:09.58
Joe
I do not think so. And I think it's very, very unlikely to. But that's what Republicans are going to want to run on. That's what they're going to try to run on. I do believe that's probably the best path. That's the path to the least shit you know crappy result, I think, for Republicans there is to try and campaign on what they've done.
20:27.59
Joe
Obviously, John Reed being just a radio guy. As a lieutenant governor nominee he compared to Pat Harity, who if his heart hadn't had his heart issues and probably I think would have been the nominee, I think by signs that we've seen.
20:41.64
Joe
have been a pretty solid guy and a pretty solid background to run their race on of accomplishments. With John Reed and lieutenant governor, you don't have that anymore. you're still going to see, I think, Republicans try and do that run on the successes they perceive from the Youngkin administration, the Yara's, the successes he perceives from what what he's done in the attorney general's role and what he's done there.
21:02.71
Joe
That's what they're going to try and campaign on. I think that's at the very least a path to least demolishing, and at least demolishing and ah and of yeah which is not a great way to put that, I think, but the path to least likely to getting blown out, I think, this November is through talking about their accomplishments and not necessarily holding hands President Trump.
21:21.73
Sam Shirazi
Well, that all makes sense. And I think it's it's a pretty honest assessment. And and you know we'll just have to see how this November goes. i did want to ask you one last question, actually about next year or so. After State Senator Aaron Rouse came up short in the lieutenant governor primary, there was talk that maybe he will run for the second congressional district.
21:39.71
Sam Shirazi
Now, obviously, that's up to him and he'll make up his mind, I'm sure, at some point. And I don't i don't know if he's going to run or not. But let's just say hypothetically he jumps into the race against the current incumbent Republican Jen Kiggins.
21:52.66
Sam Shirazi
you know What do you see potentially if there's a Kiggins-Rouse matchup?
21:57.04
Joe
Well, you know you know what, Sam? I'm going to drop on some from news some news for your listeners here that I've heard. Because obviously, like you said, in the aftermath of that primary where Aaron Rouse dominated his home area of Hampton Roads, there's a lot of questions on whether or not he's going to run for Virginia's second congressional district.
22:15.25
Joe
And for lots of good reasons, he should be considered because I think he would be a very strong candidate there. Lots of people in Virginia Beach like Aaron Rouse. They see him as a good guy. see as a good politician, as someone who cares about the area.
22:27.90
Joe
And there's a lot of things to success there for Rouse. I do think one thing that knocks against Rouse when you're talking about running in that congressional district and not for a city council district or for a state senate seat.
22:41.83
Joe
is that Rouse is not a Navy veteran. That's something that not just not just Democrats, not just Republicans, but both sides have looked for for candidates in this seat. That's seemingly been an important thing.
22:53.34
Joe
Elaine Luria, who held the seat for two terms as a Democrat, was also a Navy veteran, played into that background very specifically. And I've also told that Rouse himself is not really that interested in making this run for Congress. I think he would do a good job in terms of being a candidate. In terms of being a candidate, I think he would do a good job. He would be a very tough race.
23:15.45
Joe
But I've been told numerous times by numerous people, both in the area and both on the Democratic campaign side, that there's not necessarily a whole lot of interest from Rouse as it stands to run a campaign, to run a campaign for Congress. is not a whole lot of interest in him going to D.C.
23:32.39
Joe
And that the D. Triple C has really focused their recruitment on former First Lady of Virginia, Pamela Northam. Uh, that's to my understanding that she is currently, uh, the one they're going after the most.
23:45.31
Joe
I've told that they're about, uh, that apparently those conversations are going very, very well. And in fact, she seems to be the candidate right now that DC triple C is currently targeting for that race. I certainly wouldn't count out Aaron Rouse,
23:58.59
Joe
He's someone who can certainly be convinced. i'm not gonna I'm not sitting here and saying to you and to your listeners that Aaron Rouse will never run for Congress, that he's not running for Congress in 2026 in Virginia's second congressional district.
24:10.47
Joe
I want to make that clear. i'm not saying that at all. I'm saying that, however, i don't know how interested it and he is. I think he's going to have to be convinced. And that's my understanding. The DCCC is currently focusing their recruitment efforts on Pam Northam as it stands.
24:23.100
Sam Shirazi
Well, that's some... that if you You heard it here. or if If that ends up happening, Joe gets major props for that. Obviously, we'll just have to wait and see. I think you know after you you run a race like that, you need a little bit of time to decompress and process everything. So i'm sure I'm sure he's getting calls. I'm sure he's going to think about it.
24:41.73
Sam Shirazi
yeah you know He's still young, and yeah I'm sure he's he's got a lot of different things he can do in his future. So he'll make up his mind, but but that is interesting. And and I agree that... you know We'll just have to wait and see who runs.
24:53.14
Sam Shirazi
I guess now that I have you and you have all this inside scoop, could you talk a little bit, i promise this the last question,
24:59.56
Joe
yeah No problem. We can talk as long as you want, Sam. I love it.
25:02.48
Sam Shirazi
box but Yeah, I mean, it's it's always good to talk to you. So I want to talk about the first congressional district.
25:08.24
Joe
yeah
25:09.06
Sam Shirazi
It's being targeted by the Democrats next year. I'm still unsure how realistic that is, but it seems they they seem to be looking at the trends and think it's looking good, even though obviously the current incumbent, Rob Whitman's.
25:21.90
Sam Shirazi
a strong candidate and he overperformed Trump a decent amount in 2024. So I guess one, you know how realistic do you think the first district is in 2026? It's a little bit early. I know we don't know the environment.
25:33.57
Sam Shirazi
And then two, like do you think anyone might jump in Obviously, Shannon Taylor's name's been floated after she came up short in the attorney general race.
25:42.02
Joe
Yeah, it's it's it's such the the the first congressional district Virginia is such a fascinating one to me because it's such a weirdly drawn seat. You know, it goes from kind of the peninsula, northern neck area. You know, you're talking about, you know, like Westmoreland County, you know, like York County's in there, James City, Williamsburg.
26:01.54
Joe
Kind of got that, you know, Hanover. have all that kind of part, which makes up – Just over, I think, 60% of this district. And then you kind of have this like hook that comes down in through Western Henrico County and then through Western Chesterfield County that that's going to be actually the really the main base Democratic support. There's certainly a base in, uh,
26:22.85
Joe
James City and Williamsburg and York, there are Democratic voters out there. Not necessarily a whole lot middle. And then, you know, really the strong base of Democratic voters in the Henrico and Chesterfield portion. And like you said, the trends in those portions of Virginia are only getting better for Democrats.
26:40.76
Joe
Like I said earlier in the show, that's kind of been the portion of Virginia that it seems like no matter the environment, it kind of just has gotten better and better for Democrats in that area of Virginia and that part there. ah You know, do I think it's going to be a main target for 2026? You know, I'm not sure.
26:58.74
Joe
i don't think so is my answer there. I think there are other targets. You know, I think even in Virginia, you know, you talk about the second district. I think that's certainly a more likely target at the moment.
27:09.50
Joe
You look across the country, there's potentially four races in Pennsylvania that you're targeting. There's multiple races in New York. You know, there's races in California that you're still targeting. you know And there's others across the country.
27:23.21
Joe
you know i think those are going to take more precedent than the ones that you see right now. And and you know Virginia won. But I think certainly, I think if you certainly see a really good result for Democrats there in the 2025 races, that's something that could really turn up the heat on Rob Whitman in 2026.
27:39.82
Joe
That's kind of what happened with Virginia's 7th Congressional District. To an extent where, you know, Democrats did, I think, relatively well there in that race and then kind of turned the heat up there Abigail Spanberger, who is now taking that wave and is running for governor with it.
27:55.40
Joe
it's going to be very interesting, I think, to see. Shannon Taylor would be a shout. You know, Rodney Wilt ronney willt has always kind of been a candidate there. to someone like a Skyler Van Valkenburgh decided to jump in. I think he'd be a very strong candidate.
28:07.99
Joe
you it's the again, it's such a weird seat. You have to, I think for Democrats, have to find someone who can kind of balance the interest of both. The Democratic voters in the western Richmond suburbs there in Henrico and Chesterfield. But also, you do have this base of Democratic support in your county in Williamsburg and James City, whose interests I do think are they're different than the ones to those in western Richmond there.
28:33.10
Joe
And you're going to have to find a balance there. That's, I think, the challenge for Democrats here. Obviously, the challenge for Republicans that because of that hook, the seat becomes competitive. But I think also because of that hook, you have two very different types of ah ah Democratic voters in this district that I think yeah yeah it's a hard balancing act to make. and that's what makes such an interesting, potentially competitive seat, in my opinion.
28:55.13
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, I agree. I think it's it's one of those things that think at some point is going to be maybe closer to a true toss-up. I don't know if 2026, it'll get there, but we'll just have to wait and see. And that's the thing with Virginia. Every year there will be elections.
29:08.19
Sam Shirazi
Well, I really appreciate you taking the time and coming and talking to us. I think it's good to get your perspective. I always... you know Find your perspective interesting because, as I said, what I admire is you you tend to be very objective and try to just say it how it is. And so I think everyone's going to find that super interesting.
29:26.17
Sam Shirazi
So if people want to find out more or where to follow you on your social media, and I think you just restarted your sub stack.
29:33.40
Joe
Yes. Yes. So you can follow me on social media on X at at Joseph Szymanski. That's what see most of my. also did just recently restart a sub stack, excuse me, elections by Ski.
29:45.29
Joe
you can It's a free sub stack. I do not want you to pay for this, but I'm going be putting a lot of information out there about my takes. it won't just be about Virginia. It'll be about across the country, hopefully. So, you know, if you want to hear about that, go ahead. It's Elections by Ski on Substack if you want to subscribe there.
30:01.97
Joe
It's free. All you got to do is subscribe via your email. Again, free. I would really appreciate it. And Sam, I want to thank you for having me on. I always appreciate the chance to talk shop with anybody.
30:12.50
Joe
So it's been a great night.
30:13.85
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, no problem. Thanks for coming on. And this has been Federal Fallout and I'll join you next time.
Share this post