00:00.77
Sam Shirazi
Hi everyone, I'm Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections. This is a special bonus episode looking at the latest Virginia campaign finance numbers.
00:12.58
Sam Shirazi
so April 15th was not just tax day. It was also the deadline for campaigns to file their first quarter campaign finance numbers in Virginia. and I should note that obviously we're a long way off from the general election. A lot can still change. These numbers are early. They're from the first three months of the year.
00:32.42
Sam Shirazi
We're still to have a lot more time to figure out what's going on in Virginia and also what the fundraising is looking like, but this is an early opportunity to just take a look, see where things are, which campaigns are raising money, which are maybe lagging behind a little bit.
00:47.32
Sam Shirazi
And I wanted to just kind of give a quick overview in this bonus episode. And I'm going to take a little bit of time. I'll talk about the statewide offices first. I actually found the House of Delegates numbers are more interesting because I think there's a lot going on with some of the races that are going to be competitive this year.
01:03.95
Sam Shirazi
Okay, so let's start first with governor. In the governor's race, Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger has raised more than twice the amount of the Republican nominee, Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears. So Spanberger raised about $6.7 million dollars in the first quarter, whereas Winsome Sears, she raised a little bit over $3.1 And if you look at cash on hand, Spanberger has a big cash on hand advantage. She has over $11 million dollars right now as of the filing, whereas Sears had a little over $4 million.
01:38.61
Sam Shirazi
So Abigail Spanberger, she's always been good at fundraising. And you know that's just one of her strengths. So you're seeing that reflected in the governor number. Sears is you know raising it a respectable amount, but certainly behind Spanberger.
01:52.54
Sam Shirazi
And I think that's going to be one of the dynamics to look for this year. is Spanberger continuously raising more money than Sears? For Lieutenant Governor, the Republican Pat Haraday has raised the most amount in the first quarter with 540,000. That's ahead his that's far ahead of his GOP primary rival John Reed, who raised about $178,000. On the Democratic side, most of the main candidates raised between $300,000, and the leading Democrat was LeVar Stoney, who raised $428,000. You will see in these contested primaries that sometimes the donors will wait to see who wins the primary before they make donations.
02:35.59
Sam Shirazi
Uh, that's basically because they don't want to necessarily give a donation to someone who might not win the primary. And especially in Louisiana governor primary, there's so many people running, it's a little unclear who's the front runner. So I expect after the primary more so on the democratic side for the numbers to really jump up because whoever becomes a nominee, get a big donation from some of the big donors. And so, I think it's a little early to know who has,
03:00.08
Sam Shirazi
the lead in in fundraising for lieutenant governor for the general election. I think for the primary, you know, the the leading candidates on the Democratic side certainly are raising a respectable amount of money. I don't know if this is the type of primary where money is going to necessarily decide things because it's not like one of them is raising huge amounts more than the the others. So I didn't think the lieutenant governor primary, it didn't really give too much clarity in terms of who's considered the front runner given the fundraising numbers.
03:28.65
Sam Shirazi
Okay, now let's move to Attorney General. The incumbent Republican, Jason Meares, raised by far the most with $1.5 million. That was followed by Jay Jones on the Democratic side, who raised $931,000, which was much more than her his Democratic primary opponent, Shannon Taylor, who raised about $534,000.
03:50.05
Sam Shirazi
And this is, again, one of those things where I expect whoever becomes a Democratic nominee for AG will get a big influx of cash after the primary. So I wouldn't necessarily read too much into the fact that Jason Meares is up right now in the money because he's an incumbent. Obviously, he's a Republican nominee. He's getting the donations.
04:07.83
Sam Shirazi
I think whoever becomes a Democratic nominee will get a infusion of cash after the primary. And I do think that given the fact that Jay Jones has a decent fundraising lead, that does help him in the primary. If you look at cash on hand, he has over twice the cash on hand that Shannon Taylor has. So Jay Jones has almost one point five million dollars in cash on hand.
04:28.85
Sam Shirazi
Whereas Shannon Taylor has six hundred sixty six thousand. So I think, you know, this is a primary where the money is definitely on the side of Jay Jones right now. And I think that's another factor that might make him the front runner right now for the Democratic democratic nomination for attorney general.
04:45.76
Sam Shirazi
Okay, now let's move on to the House of Delegates, and I won't do every single Delegates district because that's a lot for just fundraising numbers. I did want to note that generally in the targeted seats, the Democrats have been out raising at least this quarter, and there are some GOP incumbents that fell behind in terms of the fundraising, and I think...
05:06.20
Sam Shirazi
It's, it's just a sign that maybe things are tilting one way right now in the house of delegates. Now I should note that under Virginia law during the general assembly session, uh, the members cannot fundraise while the session is in, is there is a general assembly session.
05:22.07
Sam Shirazi
However, That was not the entire first quarter. And some of these incumbents have not raised a whole lot of money. And so I don't think you can just say, well, there was a session going on. And in some of the races, the incumbents are even behind in cash on hand, which is usually a pretty bad sign because the incumbents have a big war chest that they've built over the years.
05:42.62
Sam Shirazi
And so the fact that some of them are behind and cash on hand is not a great sign for the Republicans. And I think it's just a sign this year that the Democrats are going to have a pretty decent fundraising advantage if things go the way they're going. Because if you think about it, Democrats are fired up, there's grassroots fundraising, there's the big institutional donors that are coming in.
06:02.13
Sam Shirazi
And frankly, usually when there are also PACs and corporate lobbyists who are trying to figure out who to donate to, they're trying they usually want to donate to the party that's in the majority and or the party that's going to be in the majority of the next session. And right now, both those things are the Democrats. So I think there's a lot of things working against the Republicans trying to fundraise right now in the House of Delegates.
06:27.22
Sam Shirazi
You saw in some districts, like the 41st District in Southwest Virginia, the Democrat Lily Franklin raised a lot more than the Republican incumbent, Chris Obenshain, and she has more cash on hand. And so that's obviously good sign for her if she has, at this early stage, already has more money than the Republican.
06:48.68
Sam Shirazi
And one one thing to keep in mind this time, there aren't too many Democratic primaries. So some of these Democratic challengers are starting to get the big checks early because they don't face a primary. i think in some of the districts, the donors are going to wait and see who the Democratic nominee is.
07:02.31
Sam Shirazi
But in some of these other districts, the The Democratic nominee is already picked against the Republican incumbent. And that obviously helps fundraising because you can go out and say you're taking on this Republican and that helps bring in the checks. So overall, I would say the Democrats definitely have an advantage right now in fundraising in the House of Delegates. You know, it's it's one of those things where.
07:25.70
Sam Shirazi
The donors might be sensing that this is the time to go on the offense and try to pick up some seats. and And these challengers are having an easier time, obviously fundraising, when they can run against what's going on in D.C.
07:38.90
Sam Shirazi
and run against the Trump administration. And I guess one thing I should mention, I mean, there's I talked about some of the top tier battlegrounds on my podcast about the House of Delegates. and And in those districts, the Democrats generally are are are raising a decent amount of money.
07:52.50
Sam Shirazi
Some of those districts, the Republicans are also raising a a decent amount of money. I did want to talk about some of the second tier races because... While it's early, we don't know what's going to happen. I think there is a possibility that Democrats have a good night in November and there might be a bigger wave than people anticipate. And sometimes in those waves, incumbents who didn't think that they were going to be in competitive seats or incumbents who who haven't faced a competitive election in a long time, sometimes are caught sleeping and then they might lose their election.
08:20.08
Sam Shirazi
And so I think that's potentially a danger for Republicans because Republicans, Obviously, we don't know how big of a wave it's going to be. It could be kind of a normal election where Democrats might be able to flip a few seats.
08:32.17
Sam Shirazi
It could also be like a 2017 scenario where Democrats flip double-digit seats. It's just too early to tell. But I do think the Democrats are more in the offense mindset and more willing to perhaps go in some of these reach districts where Republicans might not have thought that they have to defend them, they Democrats are willing to compete in them. The donors are willing to make donations.
08:54.99
Sam Shirazi
And so you you can't necessarily assume it's off the table because of some of those dynamics. And I just wanted to point out one district. So this is House District 66. This is south of Fredericksburg in Swatsylvania County, primarily.
09:08.89
Sam Shirazi
You have the Republican incumbent Bobby Orak, he is being being challenged by Spotsalvania school board member Nicole Cole. And I just thought this was interesting because it kind of shows you some of the dynamics that might be in play. This district voted for Trump by about two points.
09:25.71
Sam Shirazi
So obviously it's it's a little bit of a reach for Democrats to try to win it. But in this environment, I don't think it's necessarily impossible. And you saw Nicole Cole, the Democrat, she raised over $55,000. Whereas the Republican Bobby Orak, he raised less than $2,000.
09:40.37
Sam Shirazi
He raised $1,950. Obviously, that's not a huge amount of money. And I don't know if that's because he he doesn't necessarily think he's in a competitive race or because he has a huge war chest.
09:52.27
Sam Shirazi
So I will say a lot of these incumbents have built war chests over the years. If you look at the cash on hand, Nicole he Cole has about $50,000, whereas Bobby Orak has $218,000.
10:03.54
Sam Shirazi
Bobby O'Rourke still has a decent money advantage. The issue is there's still a lot of time into the election. And if each quarter looks like this quarter, the money advantage is going to start dwindling away. And I think there is a risk for the Republicans that some of these secondary tier districts where they haven't run a competitive race in a long time, they aren't necessarily taking the race super seriously.
10:24.53
Sam Shirazi
If there's a blue wave that comes in November, it just tends to wash everyone away. And especially if you haven't invested in the race and it's more of a you you think it's not competitive, whereas the other side is competing, there is a risk you might be able to lose the seat.
10:40.24
Sam Shirazi
And, you know, just to spend one minute on the 66th district, it's one of those districts where if you get a surge of Democratic turnout and you have a few Trump voters in November flipping and the rest of the Trump voters are not necessarily as engaged and you get lower turnout on the Republican side, I that doesn't take a whole lot to flip that district. So while, yes, historically it's a Republican district,
11:02.66
Sam Shirazi
Bobby Oreck's been there a while. I don't think you can just assume, well, this is never going to be competitive because we don't know what the margin is going to be at the top of the ticket. Is it going to be a five point? Is it going to be a really, really close race? And maybe when some Sears might be able to pull it off, is it going to be a five point Spanberger win? Is it going to be a 10 point Spanberger win?
11:21.24
Sam Shirazi
We just don't know. I think if we're in five point Spanberger win territory, Bobby O'Rourke in the 66 is probably safe. If we're getting closer to 10-point Spanberger victory territory, I mean, that's where things could get dicey for some of these incumbents in the more reached districts for Democrats.
11:37.50
Sam Shirazi
And I think, you know, realistically, in this type of environment this year, i don't think any incumbent in a seat that is single-digit Trump should necessarily feel 100% safe.
11:50.61
Sam Shirazi
You know, there's an old expression that you're either running unopposed you're going to run scared and it's better to run scared. And so I think we might be entering into that environment for the Republicans, but I don't necessarily see all the Republican incumbents taking their races as seriously as maybe they should. So anyways, one thing to keep in mind, I did want to just quickly talk about two other things.
12:10.31
Sam Shirazi
you know, what is money for? Sometimes we just fixate on the fundraising numbers without really thinking through, okay, what you know what's the actual use of having this money? And while money isn't everything, money can't win you every single race, I do think it's important.
12:23.19
Sam Shirazi
There are things you have to pay for. You have to pay for mailers, you have to pay for TV ads, if it's a really high profile race, radio ads. campaign staff, people that knock on the doors, you you know, all that costs money. Obviously the top of the ticket will probably help you, but the more you as the individual candidate can spend on your race, the more you can spend getting your name out there.
12:43.54
Sam Shirazi
I think that helps you. And and so while i don't think just because someone has a big but fundraising advantage doesn't automatically, they're going to win.
12:53.36
Sam Shirazi
It certainly doesn't hurt if you have a fundraising advantage. And I think it's one of those metrics that you look for in races to try to figure out who might be serious trying to take on some of these Republican incumbents.
13:05.03
Sam Shirazi
And the second thing I should say, so right now, I would say both at the governor level and some of these House of Delegates races, the Republicans are a disadvantage in fundraising. I think there's basically two possibilities this year.
13:17.36
Sam Shirazi
One of them is some of the big Republican donors look at Virginia, they look at things are getting kind of dicey and they're just like, look, it's just not worth us spending the money here because it's, it's not going to go well. And we might as well save our money donated in the midterms.
13:32.66
Sam Shirazi
You know, that is a danger for the Virginia GOP. You know, obviously they could make the argument, well, you don't want a huge democratic landslide. We still have to try to compete. Even if it's a tough race this year, we don't want all these incumbent Republicans to lose.
13:47.41
Sam Shirazi
Sure. I mean, that's something you can tell donors. It's not necessarily the most compelling message. Whereas if you looked at 2021, Governor Junkin was able to raise money. And in 2023, because the Republicans had credible paths of winning and that that led to Republicans getting a lot of money in Virginia, more so than they had in 2017 and 2019.
14:07.82
Sam Shirazi
But obviously, that was a better political environment for Republicans. And I think the risk right now when the political environment isn't great for Republicans is that some of these big donors are just going to sit on the sidelines.
14:19.78
Sam Shirazi
I will say that reg Virginia does not have any campaign finance limits. So if a big donor wants to come in, you don't need a whole lot of them to start filling in the gaps.
14:28.75
Sam Shirazi
Obviously, Governor Youngkin has been a good fundraiser during his time as governor. He's able to bring in the donations. His PAC might have a lot of money. We'll see if he's willing to spend it this year in Virginia or if he wants to hold on to his money for future political ambitions.
14:43.63
Sam Shirazi
Again, he has the same problem where he might if he spends all his money in Virginia this year and it doesn't go well, you've kind of blown the money. I think the big wild card, and this is the thing that no one really knows what's going to happen, is Elon Musk. Does he come into Virginia?
14:59.13
Sam Shirazi
I think the sense is that after what happened in Wisconsin, if Elon Musk does come into Virginia, it would help the Democrats. But obviously he has a lot of money. And I do think there's a possibility after Wisconsin that he doesn't necessarily stay on the campaign trail. He's not the face of the Republican campaign because they didn't really see that working out well in Wisconsin.
15:20.62
Sam Shirazi
But, you know, he might donate to some of the PACs and kind of indirectly get his money in here. And then that get trickles down to the Republican candidates. Obviously, the Democrats will try to figure that out and try to figure out where the money's coming from and try to tie it back to Elon Musk if he ends up donating.
15:36.87
Sam Shirazi
But it's a little bit different when he's just making donations as opposed to in Wisconsin when he directly went on the campaign trail. It was pretty easy to tie the Republicans. to him. So we'll just have to wait and see. and And he's not the only big Republican donors. I mean, there are other Republican donors out there, and they might be able to fill in the gap if they choose to, because the reality is the Democratic grassroots are fired up.
15:58.33
Sam Shirazi
Big Democratic institutional donors are fired up. They are going to be donating it this year in Virginia. And I think that's just one of the factors among many to look for in terms of how big of a victory Democrats are trying to get, because right now they're definitely on the offense.
16:12.70
Sam Shirazi
Their mentality is, We're going to try to win the governor's race big, and we're going to try to flip a lot of House of Delegates seats. And the Republicans have to think through, you know, what is their strategy to counter that? What is their strategy to get the donors to buy in, to try to win the governor's race, to try to save some of these Republican incumbents in the House of Delegates?
16:30.48
Sam Shirazi
Because again, i mean, I've talked about it. the The risk is things start slipping away for the Republicans. It's still early. a lot can change. lot of the donors could come in the future finance, campaign finance reports can look different. So I don't want to dwell on it, but I did want to just kind of touch base on where campaign finance is looking right now. So that's about it right now for campaign finance. Obviously we'll keep you updated as the future reports come in. And thanks everyone for listening and I'll see you next week on Federal Falling.
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