00:00.77
Sam Shirazi
Hi, everyone. I'm Sam Shirazi, and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections. This will be the first and hopefully many interview episodes, and I'm really excited to have as my first guest Chaz Nuttycombe.
00:14.31
Sam Shirazi
Chaz, thanks for coming on.
00:16.41
Chaz Nuttycombe
Hey, Sam, thanks for having me on. I've really enjoyed some of the episodes you've you've put out thus far and have have enjoyed your feed. And you've come on my podcast back when I was doing the CNALS podcast. And I think you came on in 2023 when we talked about the Virginia state legislative primaries. And I'm excited to talk about you know the where the primaries are right now.
00:42.51
Sam Shirazi
Yeah. And, you know, I've always been impressed with your work, Chaz, especially with state legislative races. It's a really granular thing. And I think you're doing a really good job with that. i I first noticed it in 2021 when I saw your maps and your rankings. And I thought it was really cool because I'd seen that at the congressional level, but I'd never really seen it at the state legislative level.
01:02.25
Sam Shirazi
And then your claim to fame was in 2023 when you got all 100 races in the Virginia House of Delegates and the state Senate correct. And so that was you know really impressive given you know some of those races came down to the wire.
01:17.44
Sam Shirazi
So anyways, thanks. Thanks for coming on.
01:20.22
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yeah, yeah, absolutely. You know, Jack and I, Jack Kirsting is the is the co-forecaster at, you know, was that at C-Analysis and C-Analysis is now State Navigate, the 501c3 nonprofit. so I've, you know, been been working on for a while and, you know, Jack came on 2021. That was so the first year that we were working together and, you know, we, uh, we had a good year and in, in 2023 and, had a a pretty decent year, all things especially considered, in our state legislative forecast 2024 and, in given, you know, the small polling misses
02:01.44
Chaz Nuttycombe
really excited for for virginia twenty twenty five you know there's There's a lot at stake with you know all 100 House of Delegates seats up and you know the Attorney General, Lieutenant Governor, and obviously guillatorial race.
02:21.34
Sam Shirazi
All right, Chaz. So tell me a little bit more about State Navigate. you know What's it all about and how can people help if they want to?
02:28.87
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yeah, so State Navigate is the successor to Sea Analysis, which was you know the site that i started up back in 2020 when I was in college. But now I'm a graduated man, and you know we still got a lot of familiar faces that were at Sea Analysis over at State Navigate, including my co-forecaster, Jack Kirsting.
02:52.24
Chaz Nuttycombe
And so, you know, we are a 501c3 nonprofit. And the thing that I'm really excited for is i think by sometime in May is what my goal is, is that we will have State Navigate Virginia out.
03:08.46
Chaz Nuttycombe
And by the end of this month, we will have finished out State Navigate South Carolina. For those interested, they can go to State Navigate and look at the What we have for South Carolina, that includes our state aggregate future, which has news aggregation and our district summary pages, which has candidate data, election data going down to precinct level, district demographic data, education, income, race, education by, you know, white college, non-college, that sort of thing.
03:42.42
Chaz Nuttycombe
And you know the next step with with South Carolina is building out the legislature features, which is going to have bill tracking and the ideology calculation using W nominate, which also includes the individual member probabilities of voting yay or nay on each roll call. Got to toy around with it quite a bit in my undergrad, and it's it's something I very much nerd over.
04:07.78
Chaz Nuttycombe
And, we're also working on deep campaign finance data, for, uh, for South Carolina this month as well. So once we've pretty much finished out, our front end and back end stuff for South Carolina, you know, hopefully not long after that, you know, a few weeks after we'll, uh,
04:26.18
Chaz Nuttycombe
we'll get up and running in Virginia. And, uh, you know, obviously, I think we're, we're known in Virginia for, you know, as he noted, the, uh, the forecast that we, we have because of our record.
04:38.100
Chaz Nuttycombe
and, uh, We are going to be launching our forecast for Virginia 2025 with the House of Delegates and Governor and Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General at our June 29th fundraiser in Montpelier, Virginia. That's just about 30 minutes north of Richmond City.
04:59.46
Chaz Nuttycombe
And that will be publicly selling tickets, I believe, on April 18th. I'm already contacting some, like, you know, members of the legislature and and politicos and consultants and and whatnot over the next, you know, 12 days and giving them the opportunity to get a ticket because it's kind of a small venue.
05:25.35
Sam Shirazi
Nice. Yeah, I had a chance to look at the South Carolina and look really cool. And I'm definitely looking forward to Virginia and especially with the elections this year. So anyways, congrats on getting State Navigate up and running. Now let's turn over to Virginia and this year and just the latest news since my last podcast was that Amanda Chase would not make be making the GOP primary ballot.
05:49.58
Sam Shirazi
And so Winsome Sears is the Republican nominee, Abigail Spanberger is the Democratic nominee. Chaz, what do you see in terms of Spanberger versus Sears contest in Virginia this year?
06:01.21
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yeah. Look, um, Look, um, when we're, when we're talking about the general and we're talking about the gov race, you know, i think, uh, the obvious, thing to keep in mind, that I'm sure pretty much everyone listening to this podcast already knows is that ever since Virginia has been a a two party, uh, state and, you know, black voters have, have truly had the right to vote, in Virginia,
06:28.25
Chaz Nuttycombe
you know We have elected the party opposite of the White House. This is a tradition that's gone on for, what, 50 years now or just over 50, right?
06:40.95
Chaz Nuttycombe
And so I think that's something that you know we should keep in mind. Look, I will say that I've already, pretty much the night of the Wisconsin Supreme Court election,
06:53.52
Chaz Nuttycombe
that was the final test and straw for me to be comfortable in saying that the Virginia governor race is not going to be competitive this year. uh, we can maybe quibble about margin, which margin is important because, Spanberger winning by as much as Harris won by, or maybe even a little bit less on a good night for the, uh, GOP versus Spanberger winning by double digits very much makes a difference. And,
07:22.19
Chaz Nuttycombe
what the house looks like and and whether, you know, Mieres wins and whether Republicans can retain the lieutenant governor office.
07:32.84
Chaz Nuttycombe
But unless somebody has, you know, just just kind of thinking of Ralph Northam here, I guess, like pictures of Spanberger in blackface or you know some some oppo of something spanberger did on like something she did the cia or something you know there has to be like some big scandal or oppo dump in you know like early september for abigail spanberger to not be the next governor of virginia
08:03.15
Chaz Nuttycombe
Point blank period. The only question is, is she winning narrowly? Is she winning by double digits? Is she, you know, doing better than Belial's? Is she doing better than Kane 2018?
08:19.02
Chaz Nuttycombe
Is she running ahead or behind of Harris? You know, stuff like that. that That's kind of all that really is quibble about the the Virginia governor race at this point.
08:30.79
Sam Shirazi
Well, yeah, I mean, you you certainly make a case there that Spanberger has a good shot this year. i mean, do you think it's some of these issues that are happening, such as with Doge and with the tariffs?
08:42.05
Sam Shirazi
Is that what's giving Democrats such an advantage right now? Or do you think it's just the nature of Virginia, the party out of the White House who usually does pretty well or a combination of those two things?
08:52.45
Chaz Nuttycombe
I think that, you know, you raise some issues that I think are important. I think that Doge is is definitely toxic in Virginia.
09:01.54
Chaz Nuttycombe
You know, we can I think I think Signal and I love Signal. I really do. The people at Signal are are very, very smart and probably my favorite Republican pollster.
09:12.58
Chaz Nuttycombe
But, you know, I think they put out a poll that said, you know, Virginia voters approve of Doge, but they didn't say Doge. They said, you know, like describing what Doge, you know, wants to accomplish. Right.
09:26.52
Chaz Nuttycombe
Whereas if you say Doge in in any polling in Virginia, you're probably going to see it down. Right. at least double digits. But, you know, when we talk about not, not only just for the fact that, yeah, yeah Trump is in the white house, but let's also keep in mind what I think was the big lesson in 2024 for election forecasters and election analysts.
09:50.05
Chaz Nuttycombe
When we talk about turnout and non-presidential years, I mean, let's look back at the 2017 gubernatorial map, Edgar Lesby and Republicans of Virginia,
10:00.83
Chaz Nuttycombe
held up pretty decently well with high prop voters. You know, Gillespie was winning Stafford. Gillespie barely lost Chesterfield. Gillespie even won James City County, right?
10:12.46
Chaz Nuttycombe
And I mean, this is the big thing in this this chain that the change between the party's bases, right? You know,
10:23.56
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yes, Democrats are becoming the party of of the wealthy, elite, and the educated, those those with a college degree educated, and Republicans are becoming more of the party of the...
10:38.75
Chaz Nuttycombe
Those who aren't tuning in to news every day and are just working man, working Joe, not just for white voters, but also increasingly non-white voters. saw that in 2024. So that's a thing. Trump doesn't have to
10:55.72
Chaz Nuttycombe
but trump doesn't have to be at the you know the lowest point of approval in his presidency, which is right after Charlottesville, right? October 2017 was the lowest point for job approval in Trump's presidency.
11:10.56
Chaz Nuttycombe
Um, Um, and he doesn't have to be at that point. He just has to be, you know, a couple points down in job approval. And, you know, Spanberger can, could win by double digits because of the shifting, changes between the parties, uh, voting bases.
11:28.65
Chaz Nuttycombe
Um, Um, now you don't have to go back to 2017 necessarily, to look at, you know, Republicans in Virginia doing well with high prop voters. You can look at, you can look at 2023.
11:42.61
Chaz Nuttycombe
but you know, to your point, yeah, you know, Trump is, is in the white house now. And, uh, when we talk about turnout deferentials, I think that there's going to be,
11:52.92
Chaz Nuttycombe
you know, an electorate that's going to be a democratic leaning, that probably voted for Harris. but you know, that being said 2021, that electorate voted for Biden by three points. It was just for the matter of fact that Republicans could win on persuasion.
12:08.92
Chaz Nuttycombe
Um, Um, so I mean, look, if, if Republicans can do what Trump did, in 2024 with peeling off, working class, low, low to mid prop, nonwhite voters that traditionally vote democratics, especially Latinos, especially, well, I think the main, the really interesting demographic thing,
12:32.48
Chaz Nuttycombe
That kind of is they're not really low prop and and don't lack a college degree. But, you know, I think the Indian American community is a big, big thing to where Republicans could, yeah, maybe make gains with that demographic.
12:47.45
Chaz Nuttycombe
And they are, you know, like high prop. So, you know, making gains with with non-white voters pretty much, especially on the issues of like transgender politics and immigration to.
13:03.57
Chaz Nuttycombe
you know, earn over the, the conservative parts of those demographics and, you know, being able to have that, those gains and then doing what they can on persuasion is pretty much their, their only hope in getting the areas over the line and retaining the LG office and, you know, maybe flipping the house delegates.
13:22.82
Chaz Nuttycombe
that's pretty much their best night possible. right now. I, I just don't see, any universe unless again, Spanberger has some sort of big oppo dump that comes in September, or October, that changes the outcome of the Virginia governor race.
13:39.57
Chaz Nuttycombe
Um, Um, and I think also, for the matter of fact that, that Winston Sears has a laughable campaign, i would say, you know, I,
13:51.82
Chaz Nuttycombe
the The fact that they fired Pool House, which you know was the architect for branding of the Unkin campaign, is, is insane.
14:01.90
Chaz Nuttycombe
And, you know, i mean, Sears is just, she's got two left feet and, uh, and is trying to, trying to dance. and, and it's, it's, uh, it's, it's a sight to behold. And I think that's something that's really hurting her. And the question is, you know, is there enough ticket splitting to where, you know, Republicans can retain those statewide offices? And, is there, you know, enough, enough room to gain with minority voters to where they could flip the house delegates. I think those are the only things that they are really shooting for, i would say, and, and are hoping for.
14:41.84
Chaz Nuttycombe
So.
14:42.86
Sam Shirazi
Yeah. I mean, I think i think the governor's race is is looking pretty dicey for the Republicans. And and I often think that you know, if if the Democrats win the governor's race by a decent margin, you know, the rest of the ticket is just going to get swept in. And so having said that, for LG and AG, I mean, I think the primaries are really important. They don't get that much attention, but given the way things are looking, think there's a decent chance that whoever wins the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor and attorney general will win those races in November. And so having said that, I mean, what are your thoughts on the LG and AG primaries, you
15:16.16
Sam Shirazi
You know, both both on on both sides for the lieutenantant governor, but I would say more on the Democratic side, given that it's more interesting race with all those people and then also attorney general race on the Democratic side.
15:27.79
Chaz Nuttycombe
i would I would be shocked if if John Reed were to be able to beat Pat Herity in the Republican nomination for LG.
15:39.75
Chaz Nuttycombe
I would be kind of shocked. Right. I mean, this is... I mean, look, now that being said, as I live in Hanover County, right? Right.
15:50.08
Chaz Nuttycombe
And i know then I know the power of news radio 1140 WRVA. I really do. I, you know, i've I've heard plenty plenty of their their stuff, like growing up in and whatnot. And, you know, I don't remember, you know, Reid. I don't know how long he's been there.
16:12.82
Chaz Nuttycombe
Um, Um, but I mean, if this was someone like Jeff Katz, then I think that would be a little bit different, but you know, I don't know how, how many people were like listening to his radio show and whatnot, but you know, like even then, i mean, the fact of the matter is that, you know, heritage is probably gonna out raise and,
16:30.59
Chaz Nuttycombe
you know, he's, uh, he's going to make a good pitch to, to Nova voters. And i mean, you know, uh, reads, reads base and re reads reach only goes into the, Richmond metropolitan area. And, uh, I think that, you know, I mean, if he could win Hampton roads, then, then yeah.
16:51.69
Chaz Nuttycombe
Um, Um, but I, uh, I would, I would be shocked if Herity is not the LG nominee. Going into the LG Dem primary, i mean, look, again, for for any of these these takes, it's mainly on intuition. Like, there' there's no forecast. You can't forecast any primary. There's a very volatile electorates and very unpredictable.
17:16.06
Chaz Nuttycombe
Polling is, like, good for, like, a baseline, but in terms of, like, how accurate polling is in primaries versus generals, right? so it's, it's mainly like intuition.
17:27.69
Chaz Nuttycombe
Um, Um, and you know, I, I'm not like really having my finger this close on the pulse, but. you know I mean, I think that the LG Dem primary is is competitive.
17:40.16
Chaz Nuttycombe
If I were to guess, I would say Rouse has a little bit of an advantage. you know he'll He'll do well in Hampton Roads, and then I think he's probably going to do well with rural black voters and rural white voters as well with his ads for his time Virginia Tech.
17:55.09
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yeah. you know know virginia ah his his time at virginia tech and, uh, you know, I think that the question is, where, where does s Stoney play in all this?
18:10.58
Chaz Nuttycombe
Um, Um, I think Stoney is a dead man, by the end of this, cause there's, there's no way he's going to go into, into, you know, uh, the third week of June unscathed.
18:23.25
Chaz Nuttycombe
with the water crisis, with Navy Yard, with, uh, the, casino, attempts and especially the second one.
18:33.92
Chaz Nuttycombe
You know, like the the, I think the question is with Stoney is like, is he going to carry Richmond city? I think he could, you know, he has support from black voters in the city.
18:46.92
Chaz Nuttycombe
Um, Um, and, uh, but you know, i mean, just white voters in Richmond hate them, uh, in the city proper. And I would assume that he, he probably wouldn't do well with,
18:59.83
Chaz Nuttycombe
you know, voters that aren't black in Henrico and in Chesterfield. So, you know, I mean, I think that gives Hashmi an advantage with, you know, doing well in those counties, I would guess.
19:17.97
Chaz Nuttycombe
And, you know, there's, there's Babur Lateef, which, you know, like Nova is the big question mark, I think in this, right. And I think there is a lot of attention on Nova and on Doge and and whatnot.
19:33.91
Chaz Nuttycombe
And, you know, I mean, Is is his that being his home base going to going to help him out? I have no idea. I think Nova is the big question mark and is it is really going to decide this primary, most likely.
19:50.94
Chaz Nuttycombe
Shock to nobody. and Nova is going to decide a Democratic primary. right. But, you know, I mean, in terms of like, who's doing well in Nova, I don't think anybody really has a good, like, and I don't think anybody is confident enough to say, oh yeah, we're, we're up in Nova.
20:09.07
Chaz Nuttycombe
Right. Like, I don't think any campaign has that level of confidence. with the, with the AG Dem primary, I think it's probably going to be Jones.
20:19.37
Chaz Nuttycombe
I wouldn't rule out Taylor. you know, i think that being a woman in a democratic primary is a big boost and right. You can say that applies the same for cause Allah Hashmi, and keeps her competitive as well.
20:34.39
Chaz Nuttycombe
and in addition to her base and, you know, her time in the state Senate, uh, but, you know, I think that, you know, Jay Jones has,
20:45.23
Chaz Nuttycombe
put together a campaign that's been running a lot longer and he has a lot more name recognition from his 2021 run. So, but also again, there's that, there's that question of Nova, like, you know, he'll, Jay will probably do well in, you know, obviously Hampton roads and with black voters, rural and urban, you know, but like,
21:11.94
Chaz Nuttycombe
how How is he going to play in Nova? Is that something maybe Shannon Taylor can, you know, bite into or or outright win or something? Right. So, yeah, I mean, that's that's where I think things are. But it's it's early April.
21:28.64
Chaz Nuttycombe
Right. We got two and a half months for the primary. This could age very well or of age age very poorly. So.
21:37.71
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, I mean, I agree with you. Northern Virginia is like the big wild card in both those races. And it's it's always hard to know because it costs a lot of money to run ads. And I don't know if that's to happen in these races.
21:49.07
Sam Shirazi
So we'll we'll see. I agree. it's It's a little bit early to to give it exact prediction, maybe closer to the primary. we We'll have a better sense.
21:56.78
Chaz Nuttycombe
Well, I think also when we talk about ads, I mean, on on the note of, you know, Stoney or maybe even the AG primary, are C4 is going to get involved in this, you know, with like doing the dirty work and attacking a candidate.
22:16.20
Chaz Nuttycombe
Right. And I could think of a few that, you know, would want to get involved in especially like going against Stoney.
22:26.37
Chaz Nuttycombe
Maybe there's one that wants to go against Taylor. I don't know. But, you know, I think that's going to be something that I think people are are watching for right now as well.
22:36.07
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, I think it's a good point. So we'll we'll just have to kind of wait and see what happens with all that. I did want to just shift gears a little bit. Don't want to ask about specific districts except one, which I might ask you after you answer this question. But I wanted to get your sense of the House of Delegates more so for the general election.
22:53.88
Sam Shirazi
Because I'm kind of struggling to, you know, i'm my guess is Democrats have a shot to pick up seats. Is it going to be, you know, like a little wave where they pick up a few of the pretty obvious seats? Or is there the possibility of like a big 2017 wave where they pick up a bunch of seats?
23:12.06
Sam Shirazi
And obviously it's very early and we can't really know the real answer to that until we get closer to the election. But what's your sense in terms of the House of Delegates and is it going to be... a little wave or a big wave, or is it too early to tell?
23:24.64
Chaz Nuttycombe
I think it's a little early. Look, again, Jack Kirsting and I are starting on the forecast this week and and we're going to unveil it on on June 29th. It starts at 3 out here in in Montpelier for a fundraiser.
23:39.08
Chaz Nuttycombe
And then we'll publicly release it, you know, month to a month half after that. Look, I think that there's, again, like just going back to what I was saying with what I think Republicans are are hoping for for a good night into where they could flip the House of Delegates.
23:57.08
Chaz Nuttycombe
I think their ceiling is 51 seats for the Republicans, right? I think that you know there is like maybe two other seats that could have put them in I don't think they were necessarily like really trying for 53 in 2021 or sorry, not 2021, 2023.
24:15.20
Chaz Nuttycombe
Um, Um, and I certainly don't think they are this time. not even 52, I think like, you know, the best case scenario for them is 51. Right. So R plus two.
24:26.56
Chaz Nuttycombe
but look, you know, again, with, with the fact that there's a Republican in the white house, And, um, And, um, I mean, a good, and some good news for Republicans recently for, for house Republicans is the fact that Elon Musk is on his way out.
24:43.80
Chaz Nuttycombe
Um, Um, but you know, is, is our Democrats going to still be able to run against him in the general? I don't know. or, you know, like, do they want to, or are they scared of his money?
24:54.67
Chaz Nuttycombe
which i would I would say, I think, is his money's a net negative, as you know you can see by the difference between the state superintendent race and the state Supreme Court race in Wisconsin.
25:06.81
Chaz Nuttycombe
But look, I think that the the ceiling for the Democrats could be 20 seats. The fact that we might enter and look,
25:16.24
Chaz Nuttycombe
I'm a numbers guy, but I'm a specific numbers guy. I'm not going to get out of my depth. I'm not an Nate Silver, right? um um don't know anything about economics, truly. I literally don't.
25:29.49
Chaz Nuttycombe
I'm not predicting a recession, right? Now, I think that for those conservatives who you know want to laugh at J.P. Morgan's face, I think they they can since you know J.P. Morgan was predicting a recession in 2023. think it was, right? And then they were saying like, okay, yeah, maybe a little bit inflation and in 2021 or 2022.
25:53.05
Chaz Nuttycombe
I think that's a good counterpoint. But, you know, we kind of have to wait and see on the recession if there is one coming or, you know, if there isn't. Because right now the markets, you know, last week were we're in free fall.
26:05.72
Chaz Nuttycombe
So look, if there's a recession, yeah, this this could be, like a 2009 situation. Now, that being said, right, I've been saying like, okay, you usually have this like intersectional moment to where the incumbent party in the White House has a big, you know, I done goofed moment with Trump, with Charlottesville 2017, with, you know, Afghanistan with Biden in 2021.
26:35.66
Chaz Nuttycombe
Um, Um, or, you know, you you don't even have to necessarily say the incumbent party. right. I think that I would kind of quibble with and say, think that there might be a chance that, uh, Ken Cuccinelli would have, would have become governor it wasn't for the 2013 shutdown.
26:52.05
Chaz Nuttycombe
Um, Um, I know that can be a hot take and I think it's plenty, you know, can be up for debate. And, you know, so I I think that the fact that this moment is happening right now is is a double edged sword for the Virginia Republicans.
27:07.98
Chaz Nuttycombe
Right. It can either be a oh, it's only going to get worse from here. Right. Or B, okay, our worst moment is now. And, you know, it could, it can get better by the time of the election.
27:22.88
Chaz Nuttycombe
So yeah, there is a little bit of wait and see, and that's why, you know, there's a 22 seat range. And, again, no hard forecast, just like in terms of where I think things are, it could be anywhere from R plus two in the house to, you know, Democrats getting to 71
27:39.72
Chaz Nuttycombe
And that is if there's a recession and, you know, again, with the fact that there is a a much different voting base and, you know, if we will see if Sears keeps stepping on her toes or whether she, you know, does some public speaking coaches or classes or whatever, because I think she has a public speaking issue.
28:03.29
Chaz Nuttycombe
um um but yeah, so I think there's a little bit of a wide range right now but you know so I I don't think there's any world in which there's something like r plus three or d plus 21 I feel i feel safe ruling that out but that's it's such a big range right to where it's like okay yeah no duh
28:24.66
Sam Shirazi
Yeah. No, I mean, it's just too early to tell. i did want to ask you about one specific district, House District 41, that is in the Blacksburg area in Southwest Virginia. i consider you a little bit of an expert in that district because you went to Virginia Tech and obviously have covered past races.
28:42.82
Sam Shirazi
And usually that that house seat is competitive. What do you think this year in terms of that district and if Lily Franklin has a chance to win it this time after she just came up really short 2023.
28:55.44
Chaz Nuttycombe
Yeah, so the college town districts, I think, are like definitely the races that I'm most interested this year. even So I'm actually going to be most likely moving into Mark Early's district in September or October just...
29:11.36
Chaz Nuttycombe
Um, Um, cause I'm, I'm looking for a new apartment and I want to stay in Richmond. So why not do it where there's good real estate for voting for the next three or four years. But the college town districts are very interesting. Right. And I think it just has to do with my, my fascination with, how the zoomer vote went in 2024.
29:31.60
Chaz Nuttycombe
Right. Um, Right. Um, I'm an older zoomer. right. An 18 year old would be calling me young. I'm 25 now. so, you know, for those, you know, maybe listen that podcast who remember me in like 2017 when, and when I was 18, right.
29:48.38
Chaz Nuttycombe
I'm, I'm, I'm old now, according to, to college students. and, uh, and, you know, they got a lot more conservative and I think, you know, there's been a lot of good writing and research on it.
29:59.92
Chaz Nuttycombe
with the fact that, you know, i think Biden is is very responsible and COVID is also responsible. But I think a big thing is that just...
30:12.27
Chaz Nuttycombe
in terms of like college students also being kind of naturally low prop. I would say that the Republican college voters are especially low prop.
30:23.07
Chaz Nuttycombe
I mean, i posted this the other day, Liberty University had like 13% of the precinct, Liberty University precinct proper had like 13% its 2024 turnout. think that might be,
30:35.36
Chaz Nuttycombe
and i think that might be like for any contested race, at least like the lowest, turnout of 2024 vote share in that precinct, in the Commonwealth.
30:48.15
Chaz Nuttycombe
And, um, um, you know, the question is, can, can Republicans get these kids out to vote? right. They've made a lot of gains here, but can they get them out to vote?
30:59.45
Chaz Nuttycombe
this is going to be their first rodeo, pretty much an investing in same day registration. right. They didn't really do that in 2023. Uh, and that almost, and because of that investment in same day registration, that almost resulted in Amanda Batten and Chris Obenshain losing.
31:17.73
Chaz Nuttycombe
Right. So i'm I'm really interested in it. And and yeah, I'm interested in the 41st. You know, i I especially just a story I love is, you know, back in 2023, it's like literally Election Day. And for Jane Tech, wanted to do like a little video on like, you know, a day and a day of Election Day following, you know, the elections font, whatever, you know, they have in the in the thing.
31:46.22
Chaz Nuttycombe
Um, Um, cause I saw the Cardinal news article, which, you know, I, I do love that article. but i I went to campus to write for J tech has three voting, uh, precincts on campus now.
31:59.46
Chaz Nuttycombe
And they're bringing out the beer bong tables. They're bringing out the foldable tables. And, and I felt good about my predictions that year.
32:05.70
Sam Shirazi
That's
32:08.68
Chaz Nuttycombe
Um, Um, I did, i thought like, okay, I feel like I feel good about like 98 in the house, uh, and then like a 38 out of 40 in the Senate. And then like when I'm seeing that and I predicted that Ovenshane was, you know, going to win, i thought it was going to be closer than people thought.
32:26.56
Chaz Nuttycombe
Certainly wasn't, it was closer than I thought, but still I'm on my drive home and I'm thinking like, if I get every single district right, but the one i live in for the past couple of years, I'm going to hate myself.
32:38.71
Sam Shirazi
you
32:41.76
Chaz Nuttycombe
I'm going to be so pissed. Right. If that is the one district I miss. And you know, it, it, it didn't happen. But look,
32:51.43
Chaz Nuttycombe
yeah i i posted the other day blacksburg now makes up a higher share of uh of the district's uh registered voters in uh in 2025 uh at least currently march 2025 versus march 2023 blacksburg makes up a higher vote share right it compared to like the rest of Montgomery County and, uh, wrote the part of Roanoke County, which, you know, open Shane, um, you know, that's something that's working against them.
33:27.37
Chaz Nuttycombe
Uh, I also think that Democrats got caught. I would, I would say, let me be specific house Democrats got costs caught sleeping in that district. Right. and I think that they,
33:38.23
Chaz Nuttycombe
also did not cut great mail. I saw a mail that they, like mail they did for Lily Franklin and it said like, Lily Franklin for for Southwest Virginia, right? Like cookie cutter crap.
33:52.10
Chaz Nuttycombe
Oh, it's a Southwest Virginia district and and whatnot. right. So they, they just pretty much phoned it in. and, uh, so, you know, uh, look, that's, that's gonna be a competitive race. I think everybody knows that, right. It was decided by 0.8%.
34:09.21
Chaz Nuttycombe
Um, Um, in 2023 it's competitive race and, uh, yeah, it got more Republican from the 2020 presidential to 2024 results. but.
34:19.79
Chaz Nuttycombe
what I was saying with, uh, for the fact that I think that these pro-Trump young voters, college voters, are not really going to be motivated to come out this year.
34:33.70
Chaz Nuttycombe
It's going to be a big thing. I'm also am interested because in these college districts, because look, the most important years in determining voting behavior later in life are when you're in your teenage years and you're in your early twenties.
34:50.97
Chaz Nuttycombe
Um, Um, right. And that, and that applies for like a whole bunch of other things psychologically. but like if there's a recession or like if these tariffs are, you know, like G Elliot Morris posted like that, uh, you know, Nintendo's news that the switch to is getting delayed or the pre-orders are getting delayed. Right.
35:11.62
Chaz Nuttycombe
Um, Um, And 18 to 25-year-old men love love gaming. they They do. you know I don't i know really play many video games much myself anymore, but maybe that's because I'm exiting the demographic.
35:28.16
Chaz Nuttycombe
But anywho, think that... it are these gains permanent or where are these, are these college kids just, they like Trump and then they don't show out or do they like Trump?
35:42.58
Chaz Nuttycombe
they are voting Democrat for everything else maybe, or did they like Trump in 2024, but now that they're not getting their, uh, switch to, or now that they're seeing like everything getting more expensive if the terrorists do that, you know, this year,
35:58.12
Chaz Nuttycombe
You know, are they are they now Democrats? Are they now like going to be out protesting? You know, I saw a TikTok that said like, you know, there's no young people at this. Was it the hands off protest?
36:09.01
Chaz Nuttycombe
Right. No teenagers, no Zoomers, no nothing. So that's that's my fat, like one of my two fascinations uh or i would say it's it's my big fascination with or what i'm looking for for virginia 2025 like those are those are the districts i'm keeping my eyes peeled on and i i'm kind of surprised that you know like that liberty district you know the lynchburg district wasn't on like the house dems list of uh of targeted districts because
36:40.56
Chaz Nuttycombe
Walker underperformed Trump by like three points. And, you know, the fact of the matter is that I think i think Walker is going to have a difficult time getting those Liberty students out.
36:52.72
Chaz Nuttycombe
So, but, you know, yeah, it voted for Trump by 11 points and that's probably all we see. So, you know, it'll be interesting to see those districts, but obviously, yeah, the 41st, I would say is I would say the 41st is the most competitive.
37:07.96
Chaz Nuttycombe
So.
37:08.86
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, well, I appreciate your thoughts on that. Welcome to the old man club. And you know now we'll have to figure out what the kids decided to do this year. I did want to leave you just, I did have one last question before we let you go.
37:22.94
Sam Shirazi
And it's actually a question about 2026. And I know this podcast is about 2025, but I want to get your thoughts on Virginia's first district. So I thought it would be closer in 2020.
37:35.43
Sam Shirazi
But Rob Whitman, the current incumbent Republican, was able to win by 13 percent, even though Trump
37:40.24
Chaz Nuttycombe
You mean 2024? You're all good.
37:41.74
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, so in 2024, 2024, that Rob Whitman was able to win the district by 13%, even though Trump won it by around 5%.
37:44.78
Chaz Nuttycombe
yeah i
37:55.28
Sam Shirazi
So Whitman really overperformed Trump, which I didn't think he overperformed that much, but... He was able to do it. I want to get your thoughts because it seems like Democrats might be thinking about targeting the first in 2026. I mean, given that Whitman won by 13 percent in 2024, mean, do you think that's realistic or you think it's a reach district? I mean, the other thing, too, is like by the time Democrats, if they win this district, they've already have this massive massive House majority. So I don't i don't know if it's really worth going after, but it seems like they're interested in going after him. What are your thoughts on the first in 2026?
38:30.00
Chaz Nuttycombe
Well, Dave Brat also won against a paper candidate in 2016 in Virginia 7 while Trump was nearly winning that district. Right. I mean, Whitman has never run against a Democrat that was trying to beat him in his life.
38:46.79
Chaz Nuttycombe
he's never run in a targeted race, I guess you could say. You know, we can say like, OK, the Democrat, you know, that ran against him in 2018 or 2020.
38:56.44
Chaz Nuttycombe
You know, they were trying to beat him, but they didn't have the resources. You can, you can say that, but either way, he hasn't run against a, a strong democratic campaign. I had, was I had a great conversation with a democratic consultant, uh, earlier this year.
39:15.17
Chaz Nuttycombe
And I was asking, you know, who do you think the Democrats should recruit, for that district? And he said, and I think, I think it is the right answer.
39:26.33
Chaz Nuttycombe
You know, I saw, I saw Virginia political meme tweet, like, you know, a lot of names that we know, but I think that, this, this consultant's answer of it's probably gotta be someone that we don't know right now. Right. So we haven't heard of like Abigail Spanberger, right. Nobody had heard of her.
39:44.21
Chaz Nuttycombe
Um, Um, when, you know, she was running for the district, right. And, and the seventh and. uh, 20, 2018. and the question is like, what is, what is the profile?
39:56.09
Chaz Nuttycombe
I think that it, I think that like Whitman is probably in danger if it's maybe someone from the peninsula or or, one of the, let's, let's say one of the peninsulas, but I would say probably the peninsula, right.
40:12.22
Chaz Nuttycombe
Um, Um, the historic triangle is probably where Democrats would probably most likely find a recruit and probably a good recruit. cause that's a big thing that, that Whitman has is, you know, he wins a lot of crossover voters in that district because he's, or in that area because he's represented that area during his, you know, for, for 20 years.
40:31.88
Chaz Nuttycombe
Um, Um, but I think that like, you know, if Democrats can get someone out in Hanover from outside of Ashland, right. So like someone in Mechanicsville, that bites into Whitman a lot.
40:45.75
Chaz Nuttycombe
Um, Um, Or yeah, they can maybe get like a rural Democrat from, you know, the Middle Peninsula. The the consultant said Middle Peninsula, but I think Northern Neck would be a good answer as well.
41:02.06
Chaz Nuttycombe
Right. Maybe like Colonial Beach or something. You know, that was that was a town that voted for Cane in 2018, if I recall correctly, and and now is very Republican. So I think like if Democrats can get someone from one of the peninsulas, or Hanover, and you know, said candidate can raise money.
41:24.55
Chaz Nuttycombe
i think Whitman is in a lot of trouble. But if Democrats are like recruiting someone from Henrico or Chesterfield, I think that's a good sign for Whitman because like there's there's only so much room, I think, that Democrats can get out of those two counties.
41:43.63
Chaz Nuttycombe
I mean, yeah, Whitman you know ran ahead of Trump and in both of those segments of the district in 2024. But I think all you have to do is put a feather on it and then you get it to presidential levels, maybe a little bit better, you know, to do a little bit better than presidential levels.
42:01.31
Chaz Nuttycombe
So I think Democrats, if they've got a nominee from Henrico or Chesterfield, I think that's a mistake on their part. so I think that's the thing to watch for is it's just who candidate there, or who the Democrats recruit as a candidate, because that's going to determine, how competitive this race is going to be is where is that democratic candidate from?
42:22.77
Chaz Nuttycombe
Um, Um, but you know, for the fact that, yeah, this is going to be what means, I think regardless, this is going to be Whitman's real race in 2026. The question is, is it like a toss up or is it, you know, like he's got like a 70 or 80% chance of winning somewhere in that ballpark.
42:41.82
Chaz Nuttycombe
And I think that really is going to come down to candidate quality on the Democratic side. So that's something we've got to watch for the next several months. You know, Spanberger was on the campaign trail in 2017. She was knocking doors for Skyler, knocking doors for Dawn and Dawn Adams and Deborah Rodman. I'm I'm pretty sure Larry Barnett as well, right, going to those events.
43:04.47
Chaz Nuttycombe
So, you know, it could be someone in the very room that, is is out there on the House Delegate campaign offices this year.
43:14.98
Chaz Nuttycombe
So, you know, we'll see.
43:17.42
Sam Shirazi
Yeah, that's a good point. I mean, even though and we got to get through 2025 first, it's going to be important for 2026 as well. So Chaz, thanks for coming on. I really appreciate it. I'm sure everyone's going to like hearing in about all your thoughts and check out State Navigate if you haven't had already. And thank you again, Chaz. And I'll see you next time on Federal Fallout.
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